President Donald Trump’s gambit to effect regime change in Venezuela now appears poised to devolve into a strategic, political, and juridical quagmire.
On Monday evening, Trump summoned key national security advisors and aides to the Oval Office to deliberate on subsequent maneuvers in a confrontation that is visibly slipping beyond his command, both within the economically struggling, resource-rich nation and across Washington D.C.
Prior to these discussions, the Venezuelan autocrat, Nicolás Maduro, delivered a spirited performance before massive throngs of adherents in Caracas, staging a rally reminiscent of Trump’s own open-air events, thereby dispelling prior speculation that he would accede to U.S. demands for his departure. Maduro declared, “We have no desire for the peace of the enslaved, nor do we seek the peace of colonies.”
The domestic political foundation supporting Trump’s endeavor is becoming increasingly brittle, given the administration’s inability to contain the escalating controversy surrounding a U.S. military action that reportedly resulted in the deaths of the remaining personnel aboard a vessel supposedly engaged in narcotics trafficking in the Caribbean. Democratic detractors in Congress are raising alarms about a potential war crime. Moreover, several influential Republicans are expressing disquiet and signaling an uncommon readiness to conduct a thorough investigation of the executive branch.
The impasse with Venezuela is now increasingly dominating the attention in Washington, following more than four months of mounting political, economic, and military posturing, symbolized by the imposing silhouette of the USS Gerald R. Ford—the world’s largest aircraft carrier—and a flotilla of U.S. naval vessels stationed near Venezuelan waters.
There is mounting scrutiny focused on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s involvement in the strikes on the boat. The former Fox News host was a contentious choice to head the Department of Defense, and his inexperience, combative demeanor, and disregard for certain established military ethical and legal safeguards threaten to render him a political liability for the President, as Democrats call for his resignation.
The USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group operates as a unified, integrated force spanning multiple operational domains, accompanied by a U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress, November 13, 2025.
The USS Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group operates as a unified, integrated force spanning multiple operational domains, accompanied by a U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress, November 13, 2025. US Navy/Getty Images
More broadly, Maduro’s recalcitrance presents Trump, Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and other senior officials anticipated at the Oval Office meeting with an intensifying strategic conundrum.
Trump has been vocal in his pronouncements.
On Thursday, he warned that land-based strikes targeting drug cartel locations in Venezuela would commence “quite soon.” On Saturday, he asserted that the country’s airspace should be considered restricted. Yet, Maduro remained in power. The U.S. President—who historically has been sensitive to any suggestion of perceived cowardice following threats—must now weigh whether his aggressive stance risks losing credence without a visible application of military force that would immerse him in an international conflict.
Maduro resists U.S. ‘options’ for departure
Washington is banking on its military buildup to sufficiently intimidate Maduro into accepting exile abroad or prompting his inner circle generals to overthrow him. Trump confirmed on Sunday that he had recently communicated with Maduro by phone—but the Venezuelan strongman did not yield. Venezuelan opposition figure David Smolansky informed Jim Sciutto on CNN International’s “The Brief” on Monday that the United States had previously presented Maduro with “options” to leave the nation.
However, this persistence of the regime will test Trump’s resolve to follow through on his threat to proceed in the “hard way,” as Maduro characteristically prolongs negotiations and crises to erode the determination of his opponents.
Maduro’s stubbornness also forces the question: would any level of U.S. pressure, falling short of military intervention, be sufficient to destabilize his regime? One possibility is that the administration misjudged the enduring strength of Maduro’s base of support—a recurring pitfall for U.S. administrations over the years that anticipated the collapse of rival totalitarian regimes in foreign countries. Maduro likely anticipates that Trump will lose patience, begin seeking scapegoats within his own team, and look for a personal exit strategy.
Should the President opt for military engagement, a full-scale invasion of Venezuela remains highly improbable. Therefore, are there options available that could so destabilize Maduro’s security apparatus as to fundamentally alter the political landscape in Caracas? Or would strikes against alleged drug trafficking sites or military installations serve to embolden Maduro, galvanize domestic popular support around him, and reinforce his belief that he can weather the storm?
Soldiers converse as a military aircraft is visible in the background during the Expo Aeronautica Venezuela 2025, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement on Saturday that airspace above and surrounding Venezuela should be regarded as “closed in its entirety,” without providing further specifics, as his administration escalates pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s government, in Maracay, Venezuela, on November 29, 2025.
Soldiers converse as a military aircraft is visible in the background during the Expo Aeronautica Venezuela 2025, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement on Saturday that airspace above and surrounding Venezuela should be regarded as “closed in its entirety,” without providing further specifics, as his administration escalates pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s government, in Maracay, Venezuela, on November 29, 2025. Juan Carlos Hernandez/Reuters
The choices confronting Trump are particularly critical because a predominantly peaceful removal of Maduro—leading to liberty for millions of Venezuelans after two decades of authoritarian rule and the reestablishment of democracy—would constitute a major foreign policy achievement. It would also project U.S. strength and intent toward other adversaries in the region, notably Cuba, and demonstrate to China and Russia, which strive to cultivate regional influence and create instability, that Trump maintains firm control over his geopolitical sphere of influence. A successful Venezuela policy could confound established foreign policy critics, much as Trump did by striking Iran’s nuclear facilities earlier this year—a calculated risk that proved more beneficial and generated fewer dangerous repercussions than many experts had foreseen.
However, if Maduro withstands the U.S. military buildup and intense pressure, he would deliver a profound message to Trump in return. The President’s authority would diminish. Autocrats in Beijing and Moscow, whom he seeks to impress, would take notice. Leaders who marshal aircraft carrier battle groups from Europe and deploy them near Latin America while employing aggressive rhetoric often invite such tests of their own credibility.
“This was really an effort, I think, to signal and to try to scare the Maduro government and Maduro himself into leaving or overthrowing him if he refused to go. That hasn’t happened,” Christopher Sabatini, Senior Fellow for Latin America at Chatham House in London, informed CNN’s Isa Soares.
“It’s a do-or-die moment for Donald Trump — does he try to deescalate?” Sabatini continued, “He’s got himself in a box, does he continue to double down? Or does he try to find some sort of negotiated exit, not only for Maduro but also for himself — declaring victory and moving on.”
We do not yet know the extent of risks Trump is prepared to take to realize his objectives in Venezuela, hoping to install a U.S.-sympathetic government capable of managing the mass repatriation of migrants displaced by the current crackdown and one willing to participate in the profitable oil and mineral concessions central to his foreign policy agenda.
A child and his mother attend a military ceremony commemorating the 200th anniversary of the presentation of the ‘Sword of Peru’ to Venezuelan independence hero Simón Bolívar, in Caracas, Venezuela, on November 25, 2025.
A child and his mother attend a military ceremony commemorating the 200th anniversary of the presentation of the ‘Sword of Peru’ to Venezuelan independence hero Simón Bolívar, in Caracas, Venezuela, on November 25, 2025. Jesus Vargas/Getty Images
The considerable U.S. military might stationed in the Caribbean has the potential to inflict devastating damage on Venezuelan infrastructure or on the drug operations cited by the administration—even though the majority of the fentanyl used by the U.S. as justification for its tactics enters via Mexico. Cruise missiles, carrier-launched air strikes, or land-based aircraft in the region could crush Maduro’s military forces.
But any American casualties or unintended harm to civilians could backfire on Trump and trigger a political catastrophe, especially when polls indicate that a large majority of Americans oppose military intervention in Venezuela.
Furthermore, historical precedent suggests that even under dire circumstances, dictatorial structures built up over decades often prove more resilient than outsiders assume. The Venezuelan government is frequently likened to a multi-tiered criminal enterprise, where key players have substantial financial incentives tied to maintaining their grip on power. And while many external observers hold out hope that Trump’s pressure will facilitate the ascent of the nation’s legitimate democratic leaders, some analysts fear that a structural fracturing of the government could usher in anarchy, bloodshed, and protracted political instability.
Consequently, none of the courses of action being considered by Trump’s inner circle on Monday were without significant consequences.
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