Vladimir Putin has no interest in reaching an agreement; instead, he savors the position of being begged to consider one.
The five-hour meeting between US President Donald Trump’s envoy and son-in-law with the Kremlin leader appeared to produce few publicly visible results.
It is valuable to step back and see the world and the Russian invasion from Putin’s perspective.
This is a war that Putin initiated, confident he could rapidly restore Russia’s status as Europe’s dominant military power, capable of swift decisive action following the humiliating American withdrawal from its longest conflict in Afghanistan.
What he wanted to be a quick victory evolved into a grim war of attrition.
For a period, a strategic failure seemed imminent, as US and NATO support allowed small, determined Ukraine to score victories that had been unimaginable a year prior.
However, the emergence of a second Trump term, with its unstable sympathy (or admiration) for Putin and its willingness to pursue peace at almost any price, changed the landscape.
Putin does not face elections; his only likely exit is death.
When Putin hears Trump claim that Ukraine is not America’s war, that he does not want to spend money on it, and simply wants it to end, he perceives weakness and indifference from the world’s mightiest military power.
This offers the former KGB officer an unprecedented opportunity: the US pleading with Russia to come to peace.
The longer this negotiation drags on, the more favorable the eventual outcome is likely to be for Moscow.
Putin’s aide, Yuri Ushakov, emerged from Tuesday’s discussions mentioning a 27-point plan plus four additional documents.
These specifics were probably meant to irritate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had recently referenced a 20-point plan and likely expected to have seen the other documents.
Putin, presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov met with US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin on Tuesday.
Putin, presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, and foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov held talks with US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin on Tuesday.
Kristina Kormilitsyna/Reuters
Yet this phase of diplomacy is mostly proceeding in quiet, giving Zelensky little reason to celebrate.
His team plans to brief European allies, then meet with Americans again before he returns to Kyiv.
Trump’s Thanksgiving target for a swift deal is now a mirage, with a harsh, unwelcoming stretch ahead.
Though Ukraine has faced nearly four years of Russian aggression, it has also endured almost 11 months at the mercy of Truth Social’s unpredictability.
The erratic impact of this often goes unnoticed, as Trump oscillates between imposing some of the harshest sanctions against Russia yet and considering sending Tomahawk missiles, only to then echo Russian talking points and exert maximum pressure on European partners and Zelensky himself.
The toll on Ukrainian morale is profound and should not be underestimated.
When history is eventually written, the spotlight will likely fall on Ukraine’s courageous and extraordinary resistance against a stronger adversary, followed by the dramatic erosion of their sacrifice by a White House consumed with television-friendly moments aimed at flattering or pressuring whichever global leader captured Trump’s fleeting attention.
Trump rightly wants the war to end as soon as possible.
Yet, this stems from a deadly misunderstanding of Putin and his aims.
Putin is pragmatic, adjusting to every new chance or setback, but he keeps a broader, overarching ambition intact.
Namely, to reshape the balance of global security and dismantle the decades-long dominance of the US.
Putin is not omnipotent.
He has disastrously misjudged his own allies over the past two years—as evidenced by the failed Wagner uprising in 2023—and faces clear challenges related to manpower and finances domestically.
But he faces no anti-corruption investigations, no midterm elections, and no heirs jockeying for power.
He has transformed Russia’s industrial base into an intense war machine and likely has a serious strategy to demobilize a now weakened and overextended nation.
In many respects, continuing the conflict is Putin’s strongest prospect for maintaining his grip on power.
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So, what remains of Trump’s peace effort?
Ushakov commented that some elements of the proposed agreement were acceptable while others were strongly criticized.
It seemed Zelensky may have privately considered land exchanges before the Kremlin meeting, softening a war red line.
However, the precise details of any concessions from Kyiv were kept closely guarded, likely to avoid confining Zelensky’s negotiating room.
Whatever incentives Witkoff brought to the table, Putin rejected the offer.
Russian attacks on Ukraine continue to cause destruction.
Russian strikes on Ukraine persist in causing devastation.
Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images
This sets the tone for the coming months and Russia’s position is not difficult to grasp.
Putin is gaining militarily—slowly, yet unmistakably—and observes Ukraine grappling with manpower shortages, funding strains, and a recurring domestic political crisis.
Zelensky is constrained domestically; power outages and frontline casualties sap morale, while repeated anguish from losses, diplomatic betrayals, pressure, and dwindling aid lead many to doubt the outcome without a growing Russian victory.
Trump prioritizes peace above all and has demonstrated in recent months a reflex to pressure allies into making concessions.
This approach makes sense if you are a property developer squeezing subcontractors to meet a buyer’s demands.
But Putin is no hotel buyer.
Trump is attempting to convince an armed occupant to abandon a property he has set ablaze just to prove he remains a neighborhood power.
This kind of deal is beyond Trump’s usual experience.
The battle and its slow progress provide the thrill for Putin, and he anticipates more of both ahead.
Added to this is the bitter irony that the US, once his chief supporter, is now begging him to negotiate, using Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff as intermediaries.
Moscow’s advances may be agonizingly slow and costly, yet the broader spectacle increasingly resembles Putin’s geopolitical fantasies, suggesting that a genuine and lasting peace could be very distant.
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