The United States just concluded two days of discussions with Ukrainian and European negotiators in Berlin, followed by further talks between European leaders—all concluding with favorable indicators about a future peace settlement.
The negotiations centered on security assurances for Ukraine to dissuade potential future Russian aggression, a matter which, despite positive statements, remains a principal sticking point in dialogues with Moscow. Another significant obstacle is the status of the Ukrainian region of Donbas, which Russia demands Kyiv relinquish authority over as part of a deal.
World leaders applauded “substantial headway” on Monday evening. Germany indicated there is a slight but tangible chance for a prompt agreement, also proposing the concept of a holiday truce, while U.S. President Donald Trump stated that “we are closer now than we were before.” But what is the actual situation?
What transpired at the Berlin talks?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his chief negotiator Rustem Umerov met with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, the U.S. leader’s son-in-law, in the German capital. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also joined the discussions, during which negotiators worked on the latest iteration of the U.S.-backed peace blueprint.
“This doesn’t mean we have an ideal plan right now, but it is a very workable version,” Zelensky conveyed to reporters in Berlin. “The Americans desire a swift resolution; we are concerned with preserving quality even at that pace. If speed and quality align, we completely concur.”
Zelensky mentioned on Tuesday that he had collaborated with the U.S. “in great detail on documents that can halt the war and secure safety” during the peace negotiations. “Every detail matters because no detail should become a reward for Russian aggression,” he remarked to the Dutch parliament in The Hague.
Currently, five separate papers are being reviewed within the proposed peace agreement—among them are “legally binding” security guarantees, upon which the U.S. Congress will vote, along with funding plans for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.
On Tuesday, the Kremlin remarked that it had not yet reviewed the text of the newest proposals regarding NATO security assurances for Ukraine.
“We seek peace; we do not want a ceasefire to grant Ukraine a respite to ready for a renewal of conflict. We want to end this war and realize our objectives, safeguard our interests, and guarantee stability in Europe going forward,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists when questioned about the feasibility of a “Christmas truce.”
What measures did European leaders define?
The commitments outlined in the European Joint Statement comprised:
A European “multinational Ukraine force” featuring allied troops within a Coalition of the Willing and “backed by the U.S.” These forces would assist in securing Ukraine’s skies and seas “including via operations inside Ukraine.”
A ceasefire monitoring apparatus headed by the U.S., involving international participation.
“Substantial backing for Ukraine in developing armed forces, which should remain at a peacetime level of 800,000.”
Future investments in Ukraine, encompassing trade pacts and “the allocation of major funds for renewal and reconstruction.” The statement also noted: “In this context, Russian sovereign assets within the European Union have been immobilized.”
Will Russia consent?
This is the central query. The Kremlin has stated its opposition to any scenario involving NATO military personnel stationed in Ukraine.
Previously, the Russian administration went so far as to insist that Ukraine constitutionally stipulate that it would not join NATO nor permit troops of the transatlantic military alliance within its borders. Moscow also demanded in November that Kyiv face limitations on its military capabilities.
U.S. officials assert that approximately 90% of the issues between Russia and Ukraine have been resolved, citing the matter of territorial concessions as the main hurdle.
One U.S. official mentioned that their side had proposed “thought-provoking” concepts on how to overcome this stalemate, including the development of a free economic zone in certain parts of Donbas.
The U.S. negotiating team suggested that such a zone be demilitarized, from which Ukraine would withdraw, but Russian forces would not enter. However, it remains uncertain whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will back away from his maximalist military ambitions to agree to this.
“The Americans are attempting to find a compromise… I want to emphasize again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not equate to being under the control of the Russian Federation. These are crucial aspects for me in any format concerning Donbas,” Zelensky stated on Monday, adding that Ukraine would recognize neither the temporarily occupied portion of eastern Donbas as legally or de facto Russian.
U.S. officials characterized the security guarantees as “akin to Article 5,” referencing the NATO treaty principle that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. Officials refrained from detailing the U.S. role beyond confirming it would not involve American troops physically present in Ukraine.
“Before departing the battlefield, we must be absolutely certain what those security assurances entail,” Zelensky concluded.
What are the subsequent steps?
Zelensky continues his diplomatic efforts, making a visit to the Netherlands on Tuesday to discuss reparations from Russia for the damage inflicted during the war.
“The discussions are not just about a cessation of hostilities, but about security guarantees,” Zelensky remarked. “This is not solely about physical safety, but about compelling Russia to finally learn to abide by the rule of law. This will only function if genuine accountability exists, if punishing the aggressor becomes inevitable.”
Trump, who called into the European leaders’ dinner on Monday, commented, “Things seem to be progressing well, but we have been discussing this for a long time, and it is not simple.” He noted the call was “very good,” and that he had a “long conversation” with Zelensky, also mentioning that the U.S. had maintained contact with Putin.
“I believe we are closer now than ever before, and we will see what we can accomplish,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Monday. “The issue is that they [Russia] will want to conclude it, and then suddenly they don’t, and Ukraine will want to conclude it, and suddenly they don’t. So we need them to be on the same page.”
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