Two major meteorological organizations are increasingly confident in the prospect of an El Niño event developing in the eastern tropical Pacific later this year. Should these forecasts materialize, we could see significant shifts in worldwide weather patterns, thereby further increasing the likelihood of global temperature records being shattered in 2026 and 2027.
In their latest outlooks, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPS) assigns a 50-60 percent chance for El Niño conditions to emerge by the late Northern Hemisphere summer of 2026, while Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology suggests there is a “possibility of an El Niño developing from June onwards.”
However, as is the case with any extended-range weather projection, anticipating such events months ahead is inherently challenging, meaning these predictions warrant a degree of caution.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring climate cycle driven by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the eastern tropical Pacific. These conditions ripple across the globe, impacting everything from rainfall distribution to droughts, tropical cyclones, periods of intense heat, and more.
ENSO cycles through three distinct phases: El Niño (the warm phase), La Niña (the cooler phase), and a neutral state. Currently, the globe remains under the influence of La Niña, although it appears to be weakening. NOAA models indicate a 60 percent probability of a transition from La Niña to a neutral ENSO state spanning February through April 2026. Following this, a shift toward El Niño is also likely, though certainly not guaranteed.
What does this all signify? In essence, El Niño events typically cause a rise in the global average temperature by approximately 0.2°C, leading to extreme weather such as droughts and floods. In a world already warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, El Niño can provide an additional warming influence, escalating the probability of record-breaking heat.
2025 is still expected to rank among the warmest years ever recorded globally, even concluding under the cooling effect of La Niña. Without this cooling factor, and considering the additional warming brought by El Niño, both 2026 and 2027 could experience exceptionally high temperatures. Given that the last 11 years represent the 11 warmest on record, if El Niño strengthens, it is highly probable the coming years will join this list as well.
Beyond mean global temperatures, El Niño brings widespread changes to regional weather. Increased precipitation and potential flooding are anticipated across the Southern U.S. and Southern Europe, while the northern U.S. and Canada are likely to see drier and warmer-than-average conditions. In the Atlantic basin, El Niño tends to dampen hurricane seasons, yet it enhances cyclone activity in the central and eastern Pacific areas.
Therefore, shifts are brewing in the eastern Pacific, and the entire planet stands to feel the effects of these forthcoming changes.
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