A team of experts from the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) has identified an additional adverse effect stemming from climate warming. The Chikungunya virus now poses a risk of spreading across a significant portion of Europe, as the minimum temperature required for transmission by mosquitoes has dropped by 2.5 °C compared to previous estimates. The researchers documented their findings in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface (JRSI).
This novel study presents the first comprehensive assessment of how ambient temperature influences the virus’s incubation period within the Asian tiger mosquito. Aedes albopictus, the vector, is an invasive species rapidly expanding its presence throughout Europe. By conducting a meta-analysis of data from 49 preceding studies, the specialists determined that transmission can now occur at temperatures as low as 13-14 °C, contrasting with the earlier assessed threshold of 16-18 °C.
The period during which there is a risk of infection has substantially lengthened. In Southern Europe, transmission may now be possible for over six months annually, while in the central regions of the continent, this window extends from three to five months. In Southeast England, this “transmission window” has reached as long as two months. The authors emphasize that this trend is alarming. Europe is warming at roughly double the global average rate, making the prospect of the virus advancing further north entirely plausible.
Chikungunya is a tropical ailment characterized by severe and prolonged joint pain, which is particularly debilitating for children and the elderly. Residual, chronic pain persists for years in 40 percent of those who recover from the infection.
Recent years have seen localized outbreaks within Europe, often initiated by infected travelers who then passed the virus to local mosquitoes. Major outbreaks involving hundreds of cases occurred in France and Italy in 2025. While cold winters have historically curbed the virus’s spread, tiger mosquitoes in Southern Europe are now exhibiting year-round activity.
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