Frightening projections have been presented by researchers from Argentina: a rise in air temperatures will lead to a sharp increase in the number of sedentary individuals, which, in turn, will result in hundreds of thousands of premature deaths. This is expected to occur by the middle of this century.
Figure That Demand Reflection
Academics from the Catholic University of Argentina scrutinized data concerning the physical activity levels of populations across 156 nations over a 22-year span—from 2000 through 2022. Based on this input, they constructed a model for the year 2050. The findings of this study have been published in the esteemed journal, The Lancet Global Health.
Global warming is progressively making our planet hotter: the last three years registered as the warmest in the entire history of meteorological observation. Under such conditions, even routine physical exertion transforms into a trial. Elevated temperatures impose considerable strain on the cardiovascular system, making engaging in sports or even simple movement increasingly arduous.
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According to the scientists’ calculations, every extra month with an average temperature exceeding 27.8°C will contribute to a 1.5% global increase in physical inactivity by 2050. In nations with lower and middle incomes, this figure will be even greater—1.85%. Regions already characterized by sweltering climates will be particularly affected: Central America, the Caribbean, sub-Saharan East Africa, and the equatorial belt of Southeast Asia. Here, the rise in physical inactivity levels could reach 4%.
The consequences of this, the researchers suggest, will be catastrophic. The surge in inactive people will translate into an additional 470,000 to 700,000 premature fatalities annually. These losses could account for 7–11% of all deaths attributed to sedentarism. Furthermore, substantial economic damage is anticipated.
The Elderly Population Is at Risk
The problem of heat is intensifying due to climate change, becoming an increasingly significant contributor to mortality. This effect is particularly pronounced in the world’s major urban centers. The so-called “urban heat island” effect plays a role (where temperatures in cities are higher than in suburban or rural areas).
For example, research published in Nature Climate Change indicates that globally, the urban heat island phenomenon results in a fourfold increase in heat-related mortality. However, during the colder part of the year, this same effect offers a protective benefit: the death rate linked to hypothermia decreases. This is quite significant for Russia and other northern countries, whereas in tropical metropolises where cold is not a concern, overheating becomes a critical factor for the populace.
The situation in Europe is also a source of specialist concern. Data presented by the Foresight analytical center suggest that by 2050, annual heat-related deaths across the Old Continent could jump from the current 2,700 to 50,000 people. Between 2010 and 2019, the number of individuals exposed to extreme heat in Europe rose by 57% compared to the preceding decade.
Scientists highlight another crucial element: population aging. The United Nations reported in a document last year that by mid-century, the proportion of the population over 65 will increase from 10% to 16%, with the bulk of this growth occurring in low- and middle-income nations. Concurrently, 68% of the world’s inhabitants will reside in urban settings.
In fact, since the 1990s, the annual number of elderly deaths linked to heat has escalated by 85%. Risks associated with respiratory, cardiovascular, and metabolic ailments become especially acute for individuals with compromised health and limited mobility. Moreover, social isolation further heightens the vulnerability of this demographic segment.
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What Action Can Be Taken?
The Argentine Catholic University researchers who initiated this study are appealing for immediate and comprehensive measures. These include:
Heat-adaptive urban design (increasing greenery, creating shaded areas);
Construction of publicly accessible sports facilities equipped with air conditioning systems;
Incorporating guidance on appropriate behavior during heatwaves into official physical activity guidelines;
Vigorous public education campaigns regarding health risks.
“Physical activity must be viewed as a climate-dependent necessity, rather than simply a matter of lifestyle choice,” the researchers assert. “Only by doing so can we avert the shift toward sedentary living driven by heat and the associated escalation in cardiovascular disease and economic losses.”
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