The world, desperate for oil, received small relief at the start of this month when Saudi Arabia began redirecting millions of barrels of crude oil—usually bound for vessels transiting the blockaded Strait of Hormuz—to its Red Sea port of Yanbu.
However, over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthi militants escalated their involvement in the war, threatening to sever even this crucial lifeline.
Anything that jeopardizes the flow of Saudi oil from the Red Sea will intensify the pressure on global oil prices, noted Richard Bronze, co-founder and head of geopolitics at the research firm Energy Aspects.
In the last fortnight, up to 4.6 million barrels per day were loaded onto vessels at Yanbu—more than triple the average for 2025, according to data from Vortexa.
This offers minor compensation for the 15 million barrels the world is losing daily while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Yet, these 4.6 million barrels are enough to severely disrupt supply; in the context of an extremely sensitive global oil market, the closure of another critical trade route would cause oil prices to climb further and trigger or worsen local fuel shortages.
In late 2023, Houthi militants based in Yemen commenced attacks on commercial ships navigating the Bab el-Mandeb strait—situated at the southern tip of the Red Sea and translating to “Gate of Tears” in Arabic—in response to Israel’s war in Gaza. These assaults compelled shipping firms to adopt longer routes, extending voyage times by weeks and dramatically increasing expenditures on fuel, insurance, and seafarer wages.
For the first 28 days of March, the volume of crude oil passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait rose by 21% compared to February, based on Vortexa figures. These supplies now present potential targets for renewed Houthi strikes.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has surged by about 50% since the onset of the conflict with Iran on February 28th, trading near $110 per barrel on Monday.
If the Bab el-Mandeb strait also becomes too perilous for tankers, the price of Brent will “very likely” surpass $150 per barrel in the coming months, an earlier projection than currently anticipated, according to Artem Abramov, Head of Oil and Gas Research at Rystad Energy consulting.
The waterway’s closure “will simply disrupt the system much faster,” he told CNN on Monday. “Even the mere threat of a Red Sea shutdown is likely to exert persistent upward pressure on insurance, freight costs, and ultimately, most oil price indicators in the days ahead.”
Another Blow to Asia
The Houthis formally entered the wider conflict on Saturday by firing two missiles toward Israel. The day prior, Mohammed Mansour, the deputy information minister in the Houthi government, informed CNN that closing the Bab el-Mandeb strait “is a viable option, and the consequences will be borne by the American and Israeli aggressors.”
The Houthis possess a diverse arsenal, including drones and anti-ship missiles, posing a substantial hazard to vessels traversing the strait.
A missile fired from Yemen toward Israel was sighted in the sky over Hebron, West Bank, on March 28, 2026.
A missile fired from Yemen toward Israel was sighted in the sky over Hebron, West Bank, on March 28, 2026. Wisam Hashlamoun/Anadolu/Getty Images
To circumvent this waterway, oil tankers departing Yanbu—the majority of which were headed for Asia—would need to take a more circuitous and significantly longer path, routing via the Suez Canal at the northern end of the Red Sea, westward through the Mediterranean, around the western coast of Africa, and into the Indian Ocean.
“If the Houthis begin threatening the vessels, it will at the very least add several weeks to the transit time into Asia,” Bronze from Energy Aspects told CNN. “This will exacerbate crude supply shortages in Asia.”
Asia bears the brunt of the global supply shock. The region relies on the Middle East for approximately 60% of its oil, and governments have implemented energy-saving measures amid the crisis.
The Philippines, for instance, declared a state of energy emergency and reduced the workweek to four days for some civil servants, while South Korea recommended shorter showers for its citizens.
So far this month, all oil departing Yanbu and passing through the Bab el-Mandeb strait has been destined for Asia, according to Muyao Xu, Senior Crude Analyst at Kpler, a firm specializing in trade data and analytics.
Should any Houthi attacks effectively seal off the strait, Xu told CNN, the Saudis would either prioritize crude shipments to neighboring Europe—thereby depriving Asia—or compel oil tankers bound for Asia to take the Suez Canal route.
Xu pointed out that many Asian regions are set to experience oil deficits in April as they deplete their current stockpiles. “If they cannot receive the Saudi oil in time, it will only deepen their short-term supply shortfall,” she added.
High oil prices are “one problem, but more importantly, they simply cannot secure enough oil,” she concluded.
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