On Friday, April 10th, Earth’s magnetosphere is set to face an impact. The cause is a coronal hole on the Sun—a region characterized by an open magnetic field structure, from which high-temperature plasma escapes into space at speeds of hundreds of kilometers per second. According to forecasts from the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the IKI RAS and the ISZF SB RAS, Earth will be brushed by a high-velocity solar wind on Friday.
The official phrasing from scientists sounds reassuring: “minor impact,” “no disruption to satellites or power grids.” However, there’s an unstated implication beneath these words. Solar activity is inherently unpredictable, and modern civilization has never been this vulnerable. Even a small geomagnetic storm could serve as a stress test for our technosphere, exposing hidden flaws in armor we believed was impenetrable. What exactly a “coronal hole” signifies and why its appearance causes experts concern is detailed in the “AiF-Volgograd” report.
What Lies Behind the Euphemism “Coronal Hole”?
The Sun is not merely a peaceful yellow disc overhead; it is a thermonuclear volcano constrained by invisible magnetic tethers. The uppermost layer of its atmosphere, the corona, is composed of plasma—ionized gas heated to millions of degrees. Magnetic field lines, like lassos, hold this plasma in loops. Occasionally, these loops rupture. This creates a region in the corona with lower density and temperature—this is what we call a coronal hole.
“It’s akin to open windows through which streams of solar plasma escape unimpeded into outer space, capable of reaching Earth. The entirety of 2025 was a year defined by coronal holes. They manifested in the most peculiar shapes, disappearing and reforming. The current year continues to astound—since its very start, such holes have been appearing across the Sun, constantly altering their outlines,” explained Olga Kolesnikova, a lecturer at the Volgograd Planetarium, to “AiF-Volgograd.”
Solar Astronomy Laboratory of IKI and ISZF SB RAS
Yuri Nefediev, Scientific Director of the V. P. Engelhardt Astronomical Observatory at KFU, clarifies that a coronal hole can only be detected in the X-ray spectrum from orbit; it is invisible to the naked eye.
It is essentially a breach in the star’s magnetic armor. The sheer scale of these breaches is enormous: tens of times larger than the Earth’s diameter. Through them, streams of charged particles are ejected, accelerated up to 800–1000 km/s. When this flux reaches Earth—a journey taking just a couple of days—it begins to interact with our magnetosphere. And this is where the risks emerge.
April 10th: A Minor Hit, But Unpredictable Ramifications
“Coronal holes are phenomena opposite to typical solar flares. They usually emerge when the Sun is quiet. Currently, after an active start to the year, the star has noticeably calmed down,” notes Sergey Bogachev, head of the Solar Astronomy Laboratory at IKI RAS.
According to him, it is precisely during solar quiescence that these holes persist longer and generate more stable, though not excessively powerful, streams. It’s like a chronic ailment rather than an acute crisis—it wears down and gradually causes deterioration.
The laboratory warns that April 9th will likely be the last calm day before a two- to three-day period of disturbances, potentially stretching from Friday through Saturday or even Sunday.
“The impact from the coronal hole might commence on April 10th. However, the ensuing effect will be weak and short-lived,” specialists specify, assessing the intensity of the high-speed solar wind as “below interference levels.” Yet, this phrase relies on statistics, not guarantees.
“Charged particles travel from the Sun at enormous velocities—we refer to this phenomenon as the solar wind. When plasma flows from a coronal hole reach Earth, they repeatedly buffet its magnetic field, causing disturbances—what we call magnetic storms. Our highly sensitive equipment reacts to these: computer malfunctions can occur, radio communication can be interrupted, and accidents may increase in frequency,” says Olga Kolesnikova.
All living organisms feel these alterations—insects may experience disruption to their circadian rhythms, and birds can lose their migratory orientation during spring returns from the south. Many people report a decline in well-being.
“Scientists have conducted specific tests: instructing pilots and athletes to perform tasks to check their attention. It was found that even these highly trained individuals make more errors on days when the Earth’s magnetic field is unsettled. Thus, magnetic storms impact virtually everything on Earth,” the expert emphasizes.
The Sun Waning: Peak Activity Passed, But Residual Effects Remain
The background activity of the Sun has now dropped below the C-level, figures comparable to those in 2022. The star has just passed the peak of its 11-year cycle (2024–2025) and is now entering a decline phase.
“The maximum of the 25th solar activity cycle has already been surpassed, occurring in October 2024. However, the Sun has been exceptionally turbulent in this cycle—powerful flares were seen in 2025 and at the beginning of this year, 2026. Overall, the Sun is beginning to quiet down, heading towards its minimum around 2030. But this does not mean it will spare us from flares, whose aftermath includes magnetic storms—these can still occur during the downturn. Anything is still possible, including the appearance of coronal holes,” predicts Olga Kolesnikova.
The Solar Astronomy Laboratory of IKI RAS and ISZF SB RAS confirms that residual energy within the star’s interior will persist for a couple more years. Individual powerful flares could potentially coincide with the streams from coronal holes, creating a hybrid storm that is difficult to predict.
Future Outlook: By the second half of 2028 into early 2029, when the deep solar minimum begins, lasting three to four years, sunspots will be scarce, radiation feeble, and geomagnetic storms rare occurrences. But the path to the minimum isn’t a smooth fade; it’s a sequence of “spikes” and “lulls.” And each of these presents the possibility of new coronal holes appearing.
Yuri Nefediev offers reassurance: while the star is at its peak of activity, nothing catastrophic looms for humanity.
But what does “no threat” mean in an era featuring thousands of Starlink satellites in orbit and power grids operating at capacity? In 2022, a moderate geomagnetic storm disabled 38 SpaceX satellites. It was not a catastrophe, but it served as a warning signal. And that storm was far from the strongest.
Which Power Systems Are at Risk?
Experts identify three primary risks when solar wind interacts with Earth’s magnetosphere. Even a weak stream can trigger them under specific conditions.
- Satellite Navigation and Communication
Charged particles heat the upper atmospheric layers—the ionosphere. It “bloats,” increasing drag for satellites in low orbits. These craft begin to slow down, deviate from their paths, and GPS systems can err in coordinates by tens of meters. This might be insignificant for an average driver, but it could be critical for an autonomous vessel in a narrow strait or an aircraft approaching a landing in fog. - Radio Communication in Polar Regions
High-frequency (HF) signals, used by aviation, naval forces, and emergency services in the Arctic, reflect off the ionosphere. When disturbed, the ionosphere becomes “rough”—communication interrupts or ceases entirely. In 2015, a medium-strength solar storm left several aircraft without communication on routes over the Arctic Ocean. Pilots had to switch to satellite communication—which, in turn, can also experience glitches. - Power Grids and Transformers
Geomagnetic storms induce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in long transmission lines. These currents infiltrate transformers, saturating their magnetic cores and causing overheating. With a weak storm, the risk is minimal, but if it coincides with peak load (such as a cold evening in a major city), automated safety systems might trigger shutdowns. The classic example is Quebec in 1989: a medium storm left 6 million people without power for 9 hours. And that storm was not considered extreme.
While networks in Russia are undergoing active modernization, many transformers date back to the Soviet era. They are not rated to handle even weak induced currents. A coronal hole is like a minor earthquake: it might pass harmlessly, but if the structure is already unsound, it will collapse.
A View from History: The Carrington Event and Unlearned Lessons
The most powerful geomagnetic storm in history was the Carrington Event of 1859. Then, a coronal mass ejection (not just a hole, but a gigantic plasma bubble) enveloped Earth in 17 hours. Telegraph wires sparked, fires erupted, and auroras were visible as far south as Cuba. If that occurred today, economic damage would be measured in the trillions, and recovery would take years.
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The current coronal hole will not generate anything comparable. However, it serves as a reminder: the Sun is not dormant. And we have become too accustomed to the idea that the sky above is safe.
“The last time a similar hole formed was on March 29, 2023—and nothing significant happened. But that doesn’t mean the next time will also be uneventful,” stresses Nikolay Dyomin, head of the astronomical observatory in Rostov-on-Don.
Furthermore, in December 2023, NASA recorded a coronal hole tens of times larger than the Earth’s diameter. We were fortunate then. But where is the guarantee that the next stream won’t hit the bullseye?
Expert Verdict: No Panic, But Vigilance
What should be done on Friday, April 10th? The answer is paradoxical: nothing special. There is no need to turn off televisions or hide in a basement. But it is worth remembering that our technosphere is a house of glass. And even a small stone thrown by the Sun could leave a crack.
Scientists from IKI RAS and ISZF SB RAS, along with Professor Nefediev and the Rostov observatory, agree on one point: coronal holes are a routine phenomenon on the path toward the solar minimum. They pose no direct health risk to humans. But for the systems that underpin the modern world—GPS, communication, electricity—they represent a structural test. And the more frequently we pass these tests, the higher the chance that one day we might fail.
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