Instability in Iran is driving up expenses for already strained farmers, with fertilizer and energy costs escalating on top of previous tariff impacts. Furthermore, mounting pressure on American agriculture could translate into even higher prices at grocery stores.
John Yeley, an Illinois farmer who cultivates corn and soybeans, reported that the cost of nitrogen—a vital ingredient in fertilizers—is increasing so sharply that suppliers are unwilling to even quote a price before the buyer commits to purchase.
“When I call the supplier right now… I haven’t been able to get a price on any source of nitrogen,” he stated.
The conflict has effectively choked off the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial choke point through which a fifth of global oil and a third of global fertilizer trade passes. This creates a supply shock for fertilizers just as US farmers are gearing up for the spring planting season, which could commence as early as March.
While the majority of fertilizers utilized on US farms are domestically produced within North America, the surging cost of natural gas means that American-made fertilizers will also become more expensive. The price of imported urea—the crystallized form of nitrogen that underpins much of global agriculture—has surged by nearly a third since the US and Israel initiated action against Iran, according to data from FactSet.
Yeley shared with CNN that since the Iranian conflict began, only one supplier has provided him with a quote for his nitrogen needs; typically, he sources from several suppliers operating in different locations.
The burden placed on farmers risks pushing up the cost of food items, which have already been a substantial source of anxiety for millions of Americans over the past few months. Even before the war began, USDA economists had forecast that food prices this year would see a greater increase than in either 2024 or 2025.
“When farmers encounter supply shortages or steep price hikes, those effects trickle down through the entire food system,” commented Zippy Duvall, President of the American Farm Bureau Federation, during a press conference two weeks prior.
Ground Situation
The conflict with Iran compounds the financial uncertainty for US farmers.
Even pre-conflict, the expense of nitrogen-based fertilizers had already risen by 22% between February 2025 and February 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“It was evident that fertilizer prices were likely headed up by springtime,” observed Josh Boxell, who farms corn and soybeans 50 miles north of Indianapolis.
Meanwhile, farmers are not realizing substantial profits—if any at all. The trade dispute between the US and China has closed one of the biggest markets for American crops, causing their market value to plummet.
Josh Menske, a corn and soybean grower in southwest Iowa, noted significant price volatility for his harvests following months of trade negotiations. He characterized the current market as “just unstable.”
It’s not solely about reduced crop prices. Farm equipment costs have climbed over recent years, and the price of diesel fuel—which powers the machinery—has also increased since the war in Iran got underway.
Chad Hart, an agricultural market specialist and economics professor at Iowa State University, told CNN that although the broader US economy remains on firm footing, the “farm economy is in a recession.” Hart pointed to depressed crop prices over the last three years and a rise in farmer bankruptcies following the pandemic.
The crop crisis is severe enough that farmers are effectively losing money growing staple crops like corn, oats, and rice.
Yeley highlighted that the combination of diminished revenue and escalating expenditures forces farmers into debt just to stay operational—a trend that drove farm debt to an all-time high in 2025.
While farmers earn less per bushel, consumers are being charged more for groceries—a trend many economists link to America’s food supply chain vulnerabilities. With the war in Iran, Americans can anticipate higher prices for produce, meat, and dairy products due to the sharp spike in fuel costs.
“Farmers aren’t really seeing gains in commodities sales, but everyone is seeing increases at the grocery store,” Boxell pointed out.
Uncertain Outlook
For now, many farmers are dependent on federal assistance stemming from last year’s tariff shocks.
Over $7 billion in government aid was distributed to help farmers navigate the trade dispute and “elevated input costs,” the USDA stated in a release to CNN. Payments began flowing on February 28th, the very day the conflict with Iran commenced.
“The joke was that the check barely landed at the farm before it was headed to the fertilizer supplier,” remarked Aaron Lehman, who raises diverse grains and serves as the president of the Iowa Farmers Union.
A combine tractor used to place fertilizer deep into the soil of a field, August 27, 2024, in Forest, Ohio.
A combine tractor used to place fertilizer deep into the soil of a field, August 27, 2024, in Forest, Ohio. Joshua A. Bickel/AP
Boxell described the federal aid as “a cushion” for him and other farmers, but added, “It doesn’t solve the problem of net losses. It just takes some of the sting off after being hit.”
When questioned about the rising cost of fertilizers, the White House responded by announcing it would permit the import of Venezuelan fertilizers into the United States. The regulation took effect this month, though it remains uncertain how much supply Venezuela can generate and how much of that will actually reach the US.
Most farmers have already secured their fertilizer requirements for the upcoming planting season, but global fertilizer supply disruptions could persist well into the future.
“When we have to price fertilizer again, what is that going to look like when signing up for the crop that will be growing in 2027?” Menske inquired.
About the Author
