This year’s Easter baskets are forecasted to be pricier, with somewhat less chocolate, even with cocoa prices falling.
Cocoa, the essential chocolate component, has been steadily decreasing in price since its 2024 peak, when futures traded north of $12,000 per metric ton. Currently, they are hovering around $3,300 per ton.
However, this price drop hasn’t translated to what consumers are paying. Candy prices have actually increased by 11.6% over the past year, according to February’s Consumer Price Index.
The reason is that the Easter chocolate currently on shelves was made using cocoa purchased when prices were at their extreme highs, according to David Branch, a manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.
“2024 marked the culmination of three successive years of adverse weather conditions in West Africa,” Branch told CNN.
West African nations are the globe’s foremost cocoa suppliers. Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire alone account for 60% of world cocoa output. Extreme weather, such as elevated temperatures and heavy rainfall, resulted in poor harvests for three straight years.
Consecutive years of reduced output led to one of the largest deficits between cocoa bean supply and demand. Markets reacted with a “stark spike in prices,” Branch noted.
Last year, chocolate giants Hershey, Nestle, and Lindt announced price hikes due to the cocoa shortage. Lindt increased its prices by 19%.
This spells bad news for chocolate-centric holidays. Valentine’s Day chocolate prices were already raised in February, and at that time, Branch suggested the price increases might cool off by Easter.
Americans are projected to shell out around $3.3 billion on Easter candy this year, according to the National Retail Federation. The National Confectioners Association reports that approximately 90% of all Easter baskets contain chocolate.
Fortunately for chocolate enthusiasts, 2026 is demonstrating much more favorable conditions for cocoa growth compared to recent years.
“What we’ve seen in this harvest is great weather, improved cultivation practices, and the emergence of new cocoa plantations across South America and Asia,” Branch stated.
All these elements have boosted global cocoa supply, driving down bean prices—though it may still take considerable time before pricing reflects these decreases on finished goods in stores. Branch doesn’t anticipate relief for customers until Halloween. Even then, it might be modest.
“I don’t foresee us getting back to where we were three years ago, but hopefully, we’ll see some easing,” Branch commented.
Cost of Doing Business
While cocoa beans have been the main driver behind price inflation, rising expenses in other sectors, like packaging and energy, have also contributed to the higher cost of chocolate.
Li-Lac Chocolates, recognized as Manhattan’s oldest chocolate shop, has been absorbing the price increases—but might not be able to sustain that much longer.
“We could have managed either the cocoa prices increase or the packaging expenses, but handling both simultaneously has been tough,” Chris Taylor, owner of Li-Lac Chocolates, told CNN. “If this situation continues, I don’t see how we avoid raising prices.”
Tariffs had inflated the cost of food packaging in 2025. Taylor had hoped that the Supreme Court’s elimination of many tariffs would spare the chocolate house from price hikes, but packaging costs remain prohibitively high for that to happen.
Furthermore, the conflict in Iran could lead to increased shipping expenses due to a sharp rise in oil prices. Branch suggests consumers might pivot towards less expensive store-brand chocolates rather than major brands. Chocolate alternatives like Peeps and jelly beans also stand to gain popularity compared to previous Easters.
But Branch remains confident in the public’s enduring fondness for chocolate treats.
“Consumers haven’t lost their appetite for chocolate,” Branch concluded. “It’s one of those small, accessible luxuries they treat themselves to. Even with elevated prices, many consumers can’t do without it.”
About the Author
