The closure of the Strait of Hormuz jeopardizes a worldwide food crisis. Interruptions in the supply of fertilizers and energy resources, stemming from the Persian Gulf conflict, pose a threat of sharp increases in food prices and widespread hunger in the most impoverished nations.
The confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has resulted in the sealing off of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for exporting both fertilizers and liquefied natural gas. This situation is already exerting upward pressure on global commodity prices: wheat and sugar costs have risen, while shipments of urea have halted entirely.
Experts from the FAO caution against a cascading effect: as energy costs climb, so too do fertilizer prices. This, in turn, leads to reductions in crop yields. The ultimate consequence is a surge in food costs. Countries particularly exposed to this risk include Bangladesh, India, Somalia, Kenya, and various other nations across Africa and South Asia. The UN estimates that as many as 45 million individuals could face the specter of starvation.
Analysts suggest that developed nations will likely only experience inflationary pressures, rather than outright food shortages. Major grain producers like Russia, the USA, Canada, and Australia possess sufficient domestic resources, positioning them to weather the storm better. Nevertheless, even within Russia, fertilizer prices may inflate due to producers favoring export markets.
Economists point out that even if the strait reopens, the impact of this conflict will linger. Further compounding the risks are potential droughts linked to El Niño in 2027 and acid rain following strikes on Iranian territory. Forecasts indicate that should the conflict persist beyond three months, a global food crisis could engulf Africa, Latin America, and swathes of Asia by the 2026–2027 period, according to reports from “Lenta.ru.”
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