A study released by Swiss scientists concludes that fusion power is unable to compete on cost with renewable energy sources. Naked Science reports this, citing a publication in the specialized journal Nature Energy.
For many decades, experts placed their hopes on nuclear fusion as a promising format for future clean energy. In 2024 alone, the US government allocated one billion dollars to such projects, with an additional 2 billion added by venture capitalists. This enthusiasm was based purely on theoretical calculations, where physicists extrapolated the cost reduction rate of mass-produced solar panels onto an entirely different field—highly complex nuclear physics. Previous forecasts suggested expenses should drop by at least 20% for every doubling of installed capacity.
To test this theory, Swiss researchers analyzed magnetic confinement plasma and laser fusion methodologies by surveying 28 respected designers. The complexity of the designs was assessed on a seven-point scale: solar panels received a score of 2 due to their relative simplicity, conventional nuclear power plants were rated at 6, and magnetic fusion reactors were given a near-maximum score of 7. Refined calculations revealed that the actual rate of cost reduction during the construction of new facilities will only be 5–8%, meaning it is several times lower than venture investors had previously anticipated.
Another issue lies in the immense scale of the structures. A magnetic reactor requires a base power output of 530 megawatts to become cost-effective, while laser systems need at least 230 megawatts. This makes standardized factory production of components unfeasible; thus, every facility must be custom-built. This dramatically inflates capital expenditures and makes costs highly variable depending on construction site conditions, such as seismic risk.
Conclusion: With these cost reduction rates and substantial initial investments, fusion energy is significantly less economically viable than wind and solar power. The authors are convinced that only a massive overhaul of the industry can resolve this issue.
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