Amidst sharp volatility in both oil and stock markets, triggered by the conflict with Iran, suspicions of insider trading have surfaced in the United States, as reported by Bloomberg. Traders reportedly executed substantial deals just prior to announcements made by President Donald Trump on social media, leading to enormous profits.
For instance, Bloomberg highlights an event on April 7th: two minutes before Trump tweeted about a two-week ceasefire with Iran, traders shifted contracts for over 15 million barrels of oil valued at $1.7 billion. Following the post, WTI crude dropped by more than 15%, while stocks experienced a gain exceeding 2.5%. Similarly, on March 23rd, sixteen minutes before a message indicated a delay in strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, traders sold contracts for 6 million barrels of oil within a two-minute window. After that announcement, Brent crude fell by approximately 15%, and equities rose nearly 4%.
Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), requesting an investigation. Subsequently, Congressman Ritchie Torres asked for the probe to be extended to cover “suspicious” transactions preceding Trump’s statement this week regarding an extension of the truce, according to Bloomberg.
The White House dismissed the accusations as unsubstantiated and reckless, emphasizing that government employees are prohibited from leveraging non-public information for financial gain. Nevertheless, the CFTC initiated an inquiry, though it had previously declined to offer comments on the matter.
Furthermore, the commission’s focus has been drawn to the Polymarket prediction market: one trader netted close to $400,000 from wagers concerning the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, executed just before Trump’s announcement initiating the operation. Later, the U.S. Department of Justice charged an American soldier with utilizing classified intelligence regarding the timing of Maduro’s capture to conduct trades on Polymarket. The platform itself stated its full cooperation with the investigation.
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