Satellite observations confirm that El Niño, the natural climate pattern characterized by warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, is gaining strength in 2026. Data from the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite show a sustained rise in sea surface height anomalies in the equatorial Pacific — a reliable indicator of warming waters. NOAA officially declared the onset of El Niño on June 11 after temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific had exceeded average values by at least 0.5°C for several consecutive months. science.
Scientists also tracked another precursor: waves of warm water (Kelvin waves) moving from the western to the eastern Pacific. As the warm surface layer thickens, it suppresses upwelling — the rise of cold, nutrient-rich water from deeper layers — which typically keeps coastal temperatures lower. The accumulation of heat in the subsurface layer is particularly significant because it can profoundly alter atmospheric processes and weather patterns globally. The phenomenon is already affecting regional climates, with increased rainfall in parts of the southwestern United States and drought conditions in western Pacific regions like Indonesia and Australia.
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