Iran is bracing for new U.S. strikes following the U.S. elections and is planning retaliatory measures should such attacks occur. Some officials in the Persian Gulf fear that any escalation of the conflict could be more extensive than previous rounds.
Iran is preparing for potential new U.S. strikes ahead of the U.S. midterm congressional elections on November 3, Bloomberg reports, citing a source familiar with Tehran’s position.
The source added that Iranian authorities are also planning retaliatory actions in the event of new attacks, with potential targets including Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
According to the source, the period between the U.S. elections in early November and the swearing-in of the new Congress in early January will be the most critical phase. The only way out of the conflict, the source suggested, would be an agreement that allows both the U.S. and Iran to claim victory.
Another source, familiar with the position of the UAE government, noted that some officials in the Persian Gulf region anticipate a resurgence of violence and fear that it could be more severe than what was seen prior to the current lull.
Meanwhile, according to shipping and maritime security sources, Iran has been targeting an increasing number of vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, inflicting greater damage than earlier in the conflict by employing guided missiles rather than attack drones.
U.S. media outlets have reported on potential U.S. plans to resume strikes against Iran following the November midterm elections. In early October, for instance, Axios—citing U.S. officials—reported that the Pentagon had directed the military to finalize preparations for a potential resumption of hostilities involving Iran. According to the publication, the directive does not specify a date for the strikes, and U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to make a final decision.
Earlier this week, The New York Times reported that U.S. and Israeli military officials had developed plans for new strikes against Iran, which could commence following the U.S. midterm congressional elections. The newspaper noted that the operation might be short-lived but intense. At the same time, sources cited by the NYT expressed skepticism as to whether a resumption of hostilities would prove any more successful than the previous campaign of U.S.-Israeli strikes—conducted between February and April—which resulted in a spike in energy prices and the depletion of U.S. interceptor missile stockpiles.
The U.S. and Israel launched an operation against Iran on February 28. In response, Tehran attacked American and Israeli facilities in the region and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In June, the parties reached a memorandum of understanding that included a ceasefire and the commencement of negotiations on unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, the exchange of strikes between Iran and the United States has continued.
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