Why the “Honeymoon” Between Xi and Takaichi Crumbled 1:36 Beijing — Just weeks after taking office, Japan’s new leader has encountered the reality of China’s “red line” on Taiwan. In the days after Sanae Takaichi suggested that her country might use military force in response to any attempt by China to take control of Taiwan by force, Beijing activated its arsenal of economic pressure: warning its citizens against traveling and studying there, hinting at no demand for Japanese seafood in the Chinese market, and stoking a wave of all-out nationalist outrage aimed at the prime minister. This turmoil appears carefully calculated to serve as a warning to Japan—and other countries in the region—about the consequences they might face if they even contemplate a position that diverges from China’s on Taiwan, the self-ruled democratic island that Beijing claims as its territory. However, this scandal, which appears to have been simmering for about two weeks, reveals something else too: Beijing’s profound concern about potential shifts in the military balance of power in Asia—as U.S. allies increase defense spending and coordination in response to China’s own growing military might. No other country causes as much concern as Japan, whose Imperial Army invaded, occupied, and committed atrocities in China in the 20th century and had colonized Taiwan decades earlier—key sore points in China’s so-called “century of humiliation” at the hands of foreign powers.
In this photo, provided by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense from a video recording, what the agency claims are Chinese warships conducting exercises off the west coast of Taiwan on February 26 can be seen. Taiwan Ministry of National Defense/AP/File Since then, anti-front sentiment has been growing in the country, intensifying in recent years as the voices of nationalistic “hawks” become increasingly mainstream in China under the strict leadership of Xi Jinping. Reinforcing the ruling Communist Party’s long-held determination to ensure that history never repeats itself, Xi Jinping has pushed for the modernization of China’s military and the expansion of its global influence. Now, from Beijing’s perspective, Takachi’s statements demonstrate that Japan does not recognize the massive reallocation of power that has established China as a rising superpower—and that it possesses military aspirations capable of threatening China’s rise. “For the first time, a Japanese leader has openly stated intentions of armed intervention in Taiwan’s affairs and posed a military threat to China,” stated a publication in the Communist Party’s newspaper, “People’s Daily,” earlier this week. “Behind this lies a dangerous attempt by Japanese right-wing forces to break free from the shackles of the pacifist constitution and claim the status of a ‘military power’.” Japan’s “Militarism” In recent years, Japan has made a **radical shift** in its defense policy, moving away from the pacifist constitution imposed on it by the United States after World War II, with the aim of increasing its defense budget and acquiring a counter-strike capability. This has occurred against the backdrop of increasing Beijing’s military activity in the region, including around Taiwan—as well as the United States urging its allies to share more of the burden of defense spending. Previous Japanese leaders avoided discussing Taiwan in the context of a military response, but politicians—particularly among the right-wing members of Takachi’s party—are increasingly concerned about the consequences in Tokyo should Beijing attack Taiwan, which is strategically located south of Japan. This circumstance has led to a growing desire for further increases in Japan’s defense spending and even a revision of the constitution. Now, Takachi, a hardliner who has previously angered Beijing by questioning some interpretations of Imperial Japan’s guilt for its wartime atrocities, has taken a step by speaking openly on the Taiwan issue. In the early days of her tenure, she also advocated for strengthening security ties with the United States and intends to accelerate the build-up of the country’s defense capabilities.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi answers a question during a House of Representatives Budget Committee meeting in Tokyo on November 7. Kyodo/AP According to Beijing, a social media account linked to the Chinese military suggests that such steps carry the risk of the “specter of militarism” re-emerging “to sow destruction in the world.” This is why some Japanese observers believe that Beijing is attacking now “to corner Takaichi and immediately put her at a disadvantage – so that she will be less inclined to promote Japan’s defense investments,” as Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, claims. Japanese troops killed over 200,000 unarmed civilians during their occupation, and raped and tortured tens of thousands of women and girls in events known as the Nanjing Massacre, one of the most odious wartime atrocities of the 20th century. Japan has repeatedly apologized and expressed regret for its wartime atrocities. However, this era has been in the spotlight in China this year as Beijing marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, when Japan’s surrender to the Allied powers liberated China from occupation and led to the transfer of Taiwan to the Kuomintang government. The Chinese Communist Party established the People’s Republic of China in 1949 after winning the civil war, while the defeated nationalists retreated to Taiwan. Beijing is using this anniversary to justify its claims over the island and voice concern about what it sees as Japan’s turn towards militarism. For Beijing, the capture of Taiwan is a key element of “national rejuvenation” that must be completed by the middle of the century – a goal that, if Beijing decides to achieve it by force, could be seriously complicated by a stronger Japan. According to Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Relations at Renmin University of China in Beijing, Takaichi’s comments can be reduced to “the wrong person speaking about the wrong thing” at the “wrong time.” ‘Defending its Sovereignty’ Despite Tokyo sending an envoy to Beijing last week to settle the dispute, Beijing is showing no signs of de-escalating its rhetoric. Instead, it insists that Tokyo retract its statement – a position that leaves neither side an easy way to back down. Meanwhile, China continues to fuel nationalist sentiment, including saber-rattling from the Chinese military, which released a video on Wednesday titled “Don’t be too complacent.” Without naming Japan, it features recitations: “We have sharpened our skills through rigorous training, how can we allow you to be so complacent?” But it was the footage of the meeting between Japanese Foreign Ministry envoy Masaaki Kanai and his Chinese counterpart Liu Jinsong in Beijing last week that underscores why China is reluctant to ease the pressure for now. This image – in which Liu stands straight with his hands in his pockets while talking to Kanai, who is leaning his head forward while listening – has gone viral on Chinese social media. Commentators called the Japanese diplomat “bowing,” while praising Liu’s choice of clothing – a suit whose style is associated with China’s May Fourth anti-Japanese movement of 1919. The symbolism appears intentional: “China’s position in defending its sovereignty has remained unchanged for a century,” read the caption of a post from the state broadcaster CCTV.
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