A 28-point plan developed by American and Russian envoys and presented to Ukraine this week included a deadline and an implicit threat: either sign on or risk being abandoned. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Friday that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy “should approve” the American plan, suggesting he was not in a negotiating mood. Since then, Trump has sent mixed messages, claiming the plan is not his final offer but adding that if Zelenskyy doesn’t accept it, he can “keep fighting as hard as he can.” Zelenskyy recognized the stark choice in a somber address to the nation on Friday, framing the plan as a choice between losing the United States as an ally and capitulating to Russian demands, which many of the 28 points satisfy. If Kyiv were to lose U.S. support, the consequences would be grim for its armaments and intelligence access, compounding existing problems: personnel shortages, a financial crisis, and growing distrust among Ukrainians toward a presidency tainted by scandal. Above all, rejecting the offer would mark an existential break from the U.S. with enormous strategic consequences for Ukraine and its European patrons. It threatened to see the U.S. fully disengage from the conflict, breaking security assurances to Ukraine and signaling not just to Zelenskyy but to Europeans: You are on your own. Weapon Supplies Not receiving the American arsenal would hurt Ukraine, but not as much as it might have three years ago. This is partly because of how the conflict has changed: tanks, anti-tank weapons, and armored vehicles now play a lesser role compared to ubiquitous drones. And partly because the flow of weaponry from Europe is now greater than from the U.S. Since the start of the war through June 2025, Europe has committed at least $40 billion in military aid, $5 billion more than the U.S. A soldier from the 141st Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prepares a tank to fire at Russian troops in a position near the front line during Russia’s attack on Ukraine in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, September 3, 2025. Stringer/Reuters A soldier from the 141st Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prepares a tank to fire at Russian troops in a position near the front line during Russia’s attack on Ukraine in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, September 3, 2025. Stringer/Reuters The loss of American weaponry would most affect Ukraine’s air defense, which includes Patriot systems and missiles. Zelenskyy has repeatedly pleaded with the U.S. for more air defense, but Patriot missiles are in short supply. Even if the U.S. stopped its own shipments of missiles and parts, it could allow European and other allies to continue contributing. Ukraine also possesses a finite stock of high-performance American ATACMS missiles. The Trump administration has shown more willingness to sell American weapons to a European fund known as the Priority Ukrainian Needs List (PURL), worth around $90 billion. But it could punish Ukraine by withholding this program—if Kyiv rejects the plan. On the upside, Ukraine has built an impressive drone and missile industry, even if it needs scaling. Ukrainian officials assert that 90% of the drones they use are produced in Ukraine. Intelligence Sharing The U.S. briefly paused sharing intelligence with Ukraine in March, following the notorious Oval Office meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy. The exact nature of this cooperation has never been publicly disclosed, but it likely involves early warning of Russian missile launches and real-time analysis of Russian troop movements, critical at a time when Russian forces are advancing on several fronts. In October, Zelenskyy admitted that Ukraine’s entire defense system against Russian missiles—Patriot, NASAMS, and IRIS-T—would have limited data without American intelligence, meaning there wouldn’t be enough information to ensure protection. U.S. intelligence was also utilized for Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory, including on military and energy infrastructure, as Ukrainian sources told CNN. Europeans are improving their access to such intelligence, but building and coordinating such capabilities takes years. People and Money Ukraine’s biggest problems are more internal and cannot be solved by any number of American tanks or missiles. Its army is facing a personnel crisis. Tens of thousands of troops deserted in the first seven months of this year alone. Many infantry units are critically short of personnel, but lowering the conscription age from 25 is viewed as a political time bomb. An instructor shows recruits of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine an FN MAG machine gun during training at a firing range in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, November 5, 2025. Andriy Andriyenko/Press Service of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Reuters An instructor shows recruits of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine an FN MAG machine gun during training at a firing range in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, November 5, 2025. Andriy Andriyenko/Press Service of the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine/Reuters If Kyiv rejects this plan, U.S. support for its solvency could become another casualty. The International Monetary Fund states Ukraine will need $65 billion in budgetary support next year alone. The European Union is struggling to agree on using frozen Russian assets as some form of credit guarantee. The 28-point plan—the work of Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian official Kirill Dmitriev—threatens to derail delicate negotiations over using those assets. “100 billion dollars of frozen Russian assets will be invested in a U.S.-led effort to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The U.S. will receive 50% of the profits from this activity.” “Frozen Russian funds located in Europe will be unfrozen,” the plan insists, even though those funds are outside U.S. control and Europe is not a party to the plan. Security Guarantees The Russian-American plan (point 5) states that “Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees,” but provides no details. Wording like, “Russia is expected not to invade neighboring countries” (point 3) will inspire little confidence in Kyiv. According to some reports, an addendum to the plan states that “a significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack by the Russian Federation across an agreed line of separation into the territory of Ukraine would be regarded as an attack threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic community.” CNN could not verify such a provision. In this photo taken on November 12, 2025, Ukrainian soldiers are seen surveying the area near destroyed buildings in the frontline city of Kostiantynivka. Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade “Kholodny Yar” of the Ground Forces of Ukraine/AFP/Getty Images In this photo taken on November 12, 2025, Ukrainian soldiers are seen surveying the area near destroyed buildings in the frontline city of Kostiantynivka. Iryna Rybakova/Press Service of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade “Kholodny Yar” of the Ground Forces of Ukraine/AFP/Getty Images Without specific and detailed guarantees approved by the U.S. Congress, to carry the force of law and be backed by the threat of sanctions, it is hard to see why Zelenskyy would agree to the bare outline of the plan. But refusal carries existential risk. Long before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dream was to separate Europe from the U.S. The Kremlin’s favorite narrative since Trump took office has been to contrast Trump’s efforts to settle the conflict with the “war hawks” in Europe. The 28-point plan reflects this administration’s semi-detached view of NATO, the cornerstone of European peace for 80 years. It states that “dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States,” changing the ally’s role to that of an arbiter. European leaders, along with Japan and Canada, came as close as a polite rejection of the plan in a statement on Saturday, saying it “requires further work.” They added that they were “concerned by the proposed restrictions on the Ukrainian armed forces,” which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to attack. European officials are meeting with their Ukrainian and American counterparts in Geneva on Sunday for more detailed discussions of the draft. Some Europeans believe this is a clarifying moment. “We have been told repeatedly and unequivocally that Ukraine’s security, and therefore Europe’s security, is Europe’s responsibility. And now it is,” former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis stated on X on Saturday. Turning Point Just a month ago, Zelenskyy said that in a phone call with Trump, he “discussed possibilities for strengthening our air defense, as well as specific agreements we are working on to ensure it. There are good options and solid ideas on how to truly strengthen us.” Those good options have evaporated. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (left) attends a working lunch meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump (right) at the White House on October 17, 2025, in Washington, D.C. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (left) attends a working lunch meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump (right) at the White House on October 17, 2025, in Washington, D.C. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images The potential loss of weaponry and intelligence—and their immediate impact on the battlefield, which is steadily tilting in Moscow’s favor, as well as on Ukraine’s energy supplies—does matter.
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