“What is invented doesn’t spring forth from nothingness, but rather from the existing disorder,” Mary Shelley noted in “Frankenstein” in 1818.
“Conflict is disorder incarnate, always has been. Yet, technological advances amplify its severity, altering the very nature of the dread it inspires,” commented Pierce Brown in “Golden Son” in 2015.
Unmanned aerial vehicles – and artificial intelligence – have fundamentally altered modern combat and are poised to do so once more.
Nowhere is this transformation clearer than in Ukraine.
After Russia’s 2022 invasion, despite being numerically inferior and outgunned by one of the world’s foremost military powers, Kyiv rapidly demonstrated that drones – whether airborne, ground-based, or maritime – could thwart a Russian conquest anticipated by many within days, if not weeks.
Being less costly and simpler to manufacture than crewed platforms, and occasionally superior in performance, drones represent a military strategist’s ideal and significantly mitigate the risk of personnel fatalities.
Much like the Kalashnikov rifle of the prior century, the widespread deployment of drones has become a crucial low-cost, high-impact weapon for forces facing significant disadvantages in global struggles, such as the Hamas group in Gaza, anti-regime insurgents in Myanmar’s internal conflict, and the armed forces of less affluent nations, particularly across Africa.
However, the established powers are now catching up, even as – according to one analysis – illicit drug cartels globally are pioneering, refining, and adapting drones for the narco-conflicts of the future.
“It’s akin to gunpowder; that’s the profound manner in which inexpensive aerial drones have revolutionized warfare,” remarked Patrick Shepherd, a former US Army officer, regarding their introduction.
This represents invention emerging from chaos, as numerous regional clashes coincide with a period of unprecedented technological acceleration.
This is almost certainly just the beginning.
The Advancement of Unmanned Systems
Drones are far from a recent innovation. Britain and the United States were exploring radio-controlled uncrewed aircraft during the First World War, as documented by the Imperial War Museum in London.
The term itself is believed to originate from the De Havilland DH82B Queen Bee, one of the remotely piloted aircraft Britain was developing between the two World Wars, which made its initial flight in 1935.
“We were sending hundreds of drones over North Vietnam throughout that war,” stated Russ Lee, a curator in the aeronautics section at the National Air and Space Museum in Washington. During that conflict in Southeast Asia in the 1960s and early ’70s, US forces started employing drones for many of the same roles we observe today—gathering intelligence, delivering ordnance, or acting as decoys and psychological operations tools, according to the Imperial War Museum.
The US initiated extensive drone usage during Operation Desert Storm, the response to Iraq’s 1990 takeover of Kuwait. The Tomahawk land-attack missile—a cruise missile that also functions as an unmanned aerial vehicle due to its in-flight course and target modification capability—saw its debut in combat in 1991.
Preparations are underway for the naval recovery of a Fleet Air Arm De Havilland DH82B Queen Bee seaplane drone (N-1846) near Weybourne, United Kingdom.
Preparations are underway for the naval recovery of a Fleet Air Arm De Havilland DH82B Queen Bee seaplane drone (N-1846) near Weybourne, United Kingdom. Fox Photos/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
A BGM-109 Tomahawk land-attack missile (TLAM) is launched towards an Iraqi objective from the battleship USS Wisconsin (BB-64) during Operation Desert Storm.
A BGM-109 Tomahawk land-attack missile (TLAM) is launched towards an Iraqi objective from the battleship USS Wisconsin (BB-64) during Operation Desert Storm. Corbis/Getty Images
That same year, a contingent of Iraqi soldiers situated on an island in the Persian Gulf conceded to a US Navy reconnaissance drone, as reported by the Air and Space Museum.
Throughout America’s “war on terror,” larger platforms like the Predator and Reaper became vital assets, executing covert strikes, tracking down insurgent leaders, and providing protective overwatch for US ground forces.
However, drones only ascended to the frontline of military operations relatively recently, according to some analysts, with the 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh marking a significant pivot point.
At that juncture, Azerbaijani forces adapted agricultural fixed-wing aircraft into decoy drones. Subsequently, when Armenian defensive systems exposed their positions by engaging these decoys, air combat drones (UCAVs) and artillery systems neutralized the Armenian anti-aircraft batteries, ultimately granting Baku dominion over the airspace.
“The employment of UCAVs following the 2020 conflict signals a newly established pattern among nations deploying UCAVs, particularly those without vast treasuries to pour into military hardware,” UK Royal Air Force Flight Lieutenant Chris Whelan observed in a 2023 paper analyzing the confrontation.
‘They manufacture highly effective aerial platforms’
Fighting has persisted on the periphery of Eastern Europe for well over three years, yet Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces remain far from securing a definitive victory.
A significant portion of the credit belongs to Kyiv’s drone capabilities.
These systems have reduced Russian tanks to burning wrecks, sunk vessels belonging to Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet, and emerged from concealed containers to destroy Russian strategic bombers on the ground. They have hunted down individual Russian personnel in open fields, within trenches, and inside structures by navigating through open windows.
They have even served as the final measure of aid for their own beleaguered troops; in one instance, a wounded Ukrainian soldier managed to cycle away from the frontline after a drone airdropped him an electric bicycle.
Rubiz Brigade Syla Svodoby Battalion
While both sides heavily relied on pre-existing foreign-manufactured drones initially, they have since established domestic drone technology development and production infrastructure.
For example, Russia is now manufacturing the Shahed attack drones it once procured from Iran in substantial quantities.
Turkish-supplied Bayraktar drones were instrumental in helping Ukraine repel Russian advances early in the war. Presently, as per the UK Ministry of Defence, which formalized a significant drone development pact with Kyiv earlier this year, “Ukraine is the global vanguard in drone conceptualization and operational deployment.”
Volunteer Jan Artyukhov examines a shot-down Russian tank in a field near Derhachi, Kharkiv region, on October 1, 2023.
Volunteer Jan Artyukhov examines a shot-down Russian tank in a field near Derhachi, Kharkiv region, on October 1, 2023. Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has, in a way, become the world’s premier drone advocate, touring NATO capitals to promote his nation’s rapidly advancing drone technology in exchange for materiel support in the ongoing conflict.
Even former US President Donald Trump has taken notice.
“They make a remarkably capable drone,” he recently commented regarding Ukraine.
Kyiv would almost certainly have conceded the war by now had it been unable to adapt widely accessible commercial technology to build up its drone forces and integrate them into its overarching military strategy, suggested Kateryna Bondar, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“That statement is one hundred percent factual. We can see this clearly by the reported figures,” Bondar stated during an online CSIS briefing in May.
Ukraine manufactured up to 2 million drones last year, a considerable increase from the 800,000 produced in 2023, according to Bondar. She forecasts that the number will reach 5 million next year.
Shepherd, the former US Army officer who served in Iraq during 2005-06, told CNN that the presence of these affordable aerial drones during that campaign would have placed the US at a severe disadvantage.
“If we had contended with these in Iraq, the outcome for us would have been disastrous,” said Shepherd, who now serves as chief sales officer for Estonian drone manufacturer Milrem Robotics and has visited Ukraine multiple times.
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