Escalating threats emanating from the United States toward Venezuela are heightening anticipation of an immediate military intervention, following President Donald Trump’s intensive pressure campaign on the Caracas government and a display of American might in the Western Hemisphere.
Each public declaration and warning issued by the President increases the probability that the US is committed to an unavoidable path toward armed conflict. This represents a significant political gamble, considering the public’s general reluctance toward engaging in new overseas wars.
Sources privy to the situation informed CNN that Trump intends to convene a session at the White House on Monday evening to deliberate on the subsequent measures concerning Venezuela. Attendees are anticipated to include Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller.
Furthermore, controversy is brewing due to fresh questions surrounding the legality of any potential operation against Venezuela and cautions that the administration’s lethal strikes against alleged drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean may constitute violations of the laws of armed conflict. Congressional committees are currently vowing strong, cross-party oversight regarding these attacks—an uncommon occurrence during Trump’s second tenure.
In an unusual development over the Thanksgiving break, Trump appeared to undermine the very justification—fighting regional cartels—that he has been employing, by proclaiming his intent to offer a pardon to a former Honduran President who was incarcerated last year in the US for facilitating cocaine flow into the nation.
Trump intensified expectations of impending conflict in Venezuela by warning on Thanksgiving Day that the US would commence actions “very soon” to interdict suspected drug trafficking networks on solid ground. On Saturday, he asserted that the airspace of the impoverished, oil-rich nation should be deemed shut. A flotilla of US warships is positioned in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, spearheaded by the most powerful aircraft carrier globally, the USS Gerald R. Ford. Meanwhile, administration officials have dedicated weeks to formulating legal justifications for action against regional drug traffickers, which critics contend fall short of legal and constitutional requirements.
An F/A-18E Super Hornet aircraft belonging to the Gerald R. Ford Strike Group and a US Air Force B-52H Stratofortress cruise above the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Bainbridge in the western Atlantic Ocean on November 13.
An F/A-18E Super Hornet aircraft belonging to the Gerald R. Ford Strike Group and a US Air Force B-52H Stratofortress cruise above the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Bainbridge in the western Atlantic Ocean on November 13. Petty Officer 2nd Class Alice Hu//USS Mahan/US Navy
Nevertheless, as the US potentially stands on the precipice of a new war, the administration has yet to furnish the public with evidence-backed and legally detailed rationales for dispatching American service members into combat.
This situation opens the door to the possibility that the mobilization and threats are merely components of a psychological pressure campaign intended to compel President Nicolás Maduro to step down, or to incite officials or military leaders to overthrow him. Alternatively, a potential military clash with Venezuela could simply signal anew that this administration perceives very few political, moral, legal, or constitutional constraints on acting precisely as Trump desires.
Even if this entire maneuver is a bluff aimed at achieving regime change peacefully, officials must soon address contingency plans should it fail. Trump’s standing will suffer a severe setback if he withdraws US forces while Maduro remains in power.
On Sunday, Trump confirmed for the first time that he had spoken by telephone with Maduro recently, though he withheld details on the timing or subject matter. “I don’t want to comment on it; the answer is yes,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “I wouldn’t say it went well or badly. It was a phone call.”
A Political Peril
A fresh US war or focused military intervention overseas would contradict a fundamental tenet of the President’s foreign policy: avoiding new foreign conflicts. Furthermore, numerous opinion surveys indicate American opposition to a strike on Venezuela. A CBS News poll conducted last month revealed that 76% did not feel Trump had adequately articulated his stance on the situation, and only 13% viewed the country as a significant threat to US security.
In the past, certain US administrations undertook considerable groundwork before military engagement to prepare the populace and garner support for the President—mirroring the situation preceding the 2003 invasion of Iraq. However, beyond vague commentary about combating drug cartels—some of which might exaggerate Venezuela’s role in narcotics trafficking—senior officials have provided scant public elucidation.
Nonetheless, millions of Venezuelans would hardly mourn Maduro’s removal following years of oppressive rule that has impoverished a nation possessing vast economic potential and driven millions into exile, including to the United States. There are specific scenarios where Maduro’s exit might benefit US foreign policy and the wider region—though administration figures have offered little clarity on post-military-action planning. The failure to plan properly in Iraq and Afghanistan resulted in significant foreign policy calamities. Some experts fear that a change of regime could incite turmoil and violence in a deeply fragmented nation like Venezuela, potentially pushing even more refugees into neighboring countries and the US.
Senator Markwayne Mullin, however, defended Trump’s strategy. Speaking on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, he asserted that the President extended an invitation for Maduro to depart and claimed Trump is safeguarding the US from drug traffickers. “He’s made it very clear we’re not going to put troops into Venezuela,” the Oklahoma Republican told Dana Bash, despite Trump never having publicly ruled out that option.
The controversy surrounding the administration’s regional intentions has been exacerbated by what individuals familiar with the incident described to CNN’s Natasha Bertrand as a follow-up US military strike on a suspected drug vessel on September 2, after an initial attack failed to neutralize all occupants. Experts and certain legislators have voiced apprehension that this so-called double-tap strike might contravene the laws of armed conflict, which forbid the execution of an enemy combatant who has been incapacitated by injury or surrender.
The specifics of these strikes were initially brought to light by The Intercept and The Washington Post. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth maintains that all attacks on suspected drug boats are compliant with US and international statutes, partly because traffickers have been officially labeled as terrorists by the US government. Critics of Trump, however, contend that the President is waging war without securing the requisite authorization from Congress as mandated by the Constitution and is encroaching upon the victims’ right to due process.
This screenshot, sourced from a video shared on Donald Trump’s Truth Social account on September 2, displays what Trump identified as a Tren de Aragua vessel transporting illicit substances from Venezuela, against which the President ordered a strike.
This screenshot, sourced from a video shared on Donald Trump’s Truth Social account on September 2, displays what Trump identified as a Tren de Aragua vessel transporting illicit substances from Venezuela, against which the President ordered a strike. Donald Trump/Truth Social
Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, a retired Navy Captain and fighter jet pilot, stated on “State of the Union” that based on his understanding of the incident, he would not have executed the order for a second strike. “If what has been reported is accurate, I have got serious concerns about anybody in that chain of command stepping over a line that they should never step over. We are not Russia. We’re not Iraq,” Kelly remarked. “They have tied themselves in knots trying to explain to us on the Armed Services Committee how this is legal, not sharing all of the information either, which is really troubling. But going after survivors in the water, that is clearly not lawful.”
Kelly has received a warning from the Pentagon suggesting he could be recalled to active duty for a court-martial over a video he recorded with fellow Democratic lawmakers, reminding military personnel that they are not obliged to carry out unlawful commands. These lawmakers claim Trump endangered their safety after labeling their actions as “seditious behavior, punishable by death.” He has since denied issuing death threats against the group.
Both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees have committed to conducting thorough oversight of the administration’s operations in the Caribbean.
A Startling Pardon Announcement
Unease about the Trump administration’s motivations in Latin America is further stoked by an extraordinary declaration from the President regarding his plan to pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who is less than a year into a 45-year federal incarceration sentence for drug trafficking. Hernández was convicted of conspiring with cartels to move 400 tons of cocaine through Honduras into the US and of protecting and financially benefiting drug traffickers within his inner circle.
The President’s decision to pardon a leader who effectively ran his nation as a narco-state severely undermines his stated rationale for employing military force against Maduro—whom he accuses of the identical offense.
“He was the leader of one of the largest criminal enterprises that has ever been subject to a conviction in US courts. And less than one year into his sentence, President Trump is pardoning him, suggesting that President Trump cares nothing about narco-trafficking,” stated Virginia Democratic Senator Tim Kaine on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “If he doesn’t care about narco-trafficking … then what is this Venezuela thing really about?”
The President maintained to reporters on Sunday that the conviction was a “Biden setup,” suggesting that no individual who has held the office of president should face legal consequences for actions taken while in power. “You take any country you want — if somebody sells drugs in that country, that doesn’t mean you arrest the president and put him in jail for the rest of his life,” he stated.
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