Groups of faithful, some gazing upward to the heavens while others kept their eyes cast down, offered prayers for precipitation at a Tehran mosque earlier this month. This entreaty grows ever more urgent. The metropolis is contending with a water shortage so dire that the Iranian head of state has floated the possibility of resident displacement. As time passes, the skies remain stubbornly dry.
There is considerable apprehension that this expansive, vibrant urban center, which houses approximately 15 million souls in its greater area, could entirely run short of water resources.
In an address delivered earlier this month, President Masoud Pezeshkian stipulated that water supplies would be subjected to rationing should Tehran fail to receive rain by December. Should the dry spell persist, inhabitants “must relocate,” he cautioned. While numerous specialists deem mass evacuation impractical, Pezeshkian’s commentary underscores the gravity of Iran’s predicament.
Although Tehran is currently under intense scrutiny, this affliction extends far beyond the capital city’s boundaries. Approximately twenty administrative regions have experienced no rainfall whatsoever since the onset of the wet season in late September, noted Mohsen B. Mesgaran, an associate professor in plant sciences at the University of California, Davis. Roughly ten percent of the nation’s reservoirs have, to all intents and purposes, dried up, as reported by Reuters.
The origins of Iran’s aquatic difficulties mirror those observed in many other regions globally: decades characterized by excessive water withdrawal; aging, compromised distribution networks; the construction of numerous dams across river systems; flawed governance; and allegations of malfeasance. Underpinning all of this is the escalating impact of climatic shifts, which foster hotter, less moist atmospheric conditions, resulting in reservoirs failing to adequately refill year after year.
Iran’s present drought registers as the most severe in a minimum of four decades, with water reserves diminishing “during a period when one would typically anticipate storage levels to be recovering, not deteriorating further,” commented Amir AghaKouchak, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of California, Irvine.
Iran, predominantly a semi-desert nation, is not unacquainted with scarcity of water, yet such shortages have seldom impacted Tehran, the locale for the majority of the country’s affluent and influential citizens.
The primary reservoirs that sustain the city are merely about eleven percent full, according to Mohsen Ardakani, the general director of the Tehran Provincial Water and Sanitation Authority, as detailed by Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency earlier this month.
Sefidrud Dam, situated near Manjil in northern Iran, photographed on November 10, 2024 and November 20, 2025. European Space Agency
Latyan Dam, situated roughly fifteen miles from the city, is barely nine percent full. Since May, the water body, nestled in the foothills of the Alborz mountains, has receded so dramatically that it has left behind a virtually barren riverbed, scarred only by a few meager trickles.
Diminished water volumes are evident at Latyan Dam near Tehran, Iran, on May 8 and November 10, 2025. Getty Images
Amir Kabir Dam, located about forty miles northwest of Tehran, is also at alarmingly low levels, currently holding around eight percent of its total capacity, according to Reuters.
Amir Kabir Dam, which provides water to Tehran, seen on November 17, 2024 and November 19, 2025. European Space Agency
Outside of Tehran, the storage levels in the reservoirs supplying Mashhad, Iran’s second most populous city and home to roughly 3 million residents, stand at only approximately three percent, stated Hossein Esmailian, head of Mashhad’s water and sewage utility, as reported by ISNA News.
Ardak Dam, which supplies the city of Mashhad in northeastern Iran, pictured on November 18, 2024 and November 20, 2025. European Space Agency
Iran’s predicament is not a sudden disaster but a continuing, protracted calamity resulting in damage that cannot be undone, asserted Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, who formerly held the position of deputy head of Iran’s Department of Environment.
He likened the nation’s state to being in “water bankruptcy,” drawing resources from its rivers, lakes, and wetlands (analogous to its current account) and its subsurface aquifers (its savings account) far more rapidly than these resources can be naturally replenished.
Experts attribute much of the current state of affairs to the government’s pursuit of agricultural self-sufficiency, partly as a reaction to Western sanctions. “For decades, official directives have fostered the growth of irrigated farming in arid zones,” remarked AghaKouchak.
The area dedicated to irrigated crops has doubled since 1979, and these crops demand substantial water, particularly rice, which is a mainstay of the Iranian diet. The overwhelming majority of Iran’s water—about ninety percent—is allocated to agriculture.
Lake Urmia, located in northwestern Iran, serves as a stark illustration of the consequences. Once ranking among the world’s largest saline bodies of water, Urmia has drastically shrunk over recent decades. While drought has played a part, the primary impetus stems from the proliferation of dams and wells established nearby to support farmlands, effectively throttling the water flow to the lake. These actions have “pushed the system beyond its limits,” Mesgaran stated.
Industries heavily reliant on water consumption, such as oil and gas operations, have also been established within Iran’s arid and semi-arid territories, intensifying the strain on areas already fragile.
Expanding urban populations have concomitantly increased the demand. The situation is further complicated by aging infrastructure. “An estimated thirty percent of treated potable water is lost through outdated, leaky distribution networks, and there is minimal water reclamation,” Mesgaran explained.
Compounding all these issues is the planetary climate emergency. “The structure was already compromised due to poor administration, and then climate change arrives to add accelerant,” Madani observed.
Iran is currently enduring its sixth straight year of drought, which has now reached a magnitude, intensity, and duration that is “unprecedented in contemporary history,” according to Madani.
The meteorological conditions fueling it—low precipitation and surging temperatures—would not have materialized without human-induced climate change, a finding detailed in a recent analysis by the World Weather Attribution network.
For residents of Tehran, an anxious vigil is underway. Hopes were high that autumn would usher in necessary rainfall, but, save for a few sporadic downpours, this has not materialized.
While officials deny formal water allocation restrictions are in place, citizens report diminished water pressure. On occasion, the faucets become completely dry for certain durations.
Government communication directed toward the public has been inconsistent and disjointed, Madani pointed out, resulting in widespread distrust and the proliferation of unsubstantiated theories, including the notion that external adversaries are manipulating Iran’s weather patterns and diverting clouds.
Evacuation remains an unlikely recourse, despite the president’s comments. “Where would people even relocate to?” Mesgaran questioned. “The nation is navigating one of its most challenging economic periods, and the majority of households simply lack the means for such a migration.”
Localized, temporary displacements might prove more plausible. During the summer, authorities mandated emergency public rest days to encourage people to leave the capital. “If you are facing mere days or weeks of available water, even conserving for a few brief hours can yield significant benefits,” Madani commented.
The government has also experimented with cloud seeding, a process involving introducing particulates into clouds to encourage precipitation in the form of rain or snow. However, there is limited scientific consensus on its efficacy. “It serves as a viable measure for governments facing desperation, simply to convey that they are taking action,” Madani noted.
To genuinely address the enduring crisis necessitates comprehensive restructuring, which includes shifting the economy away from sectors heavily dependent on water, such as agriculture, experts contend. Nevertheless, such a transformation is almost certain to be highly unpopular and could precipitate considerable job losses.
For the present, officials are placing their faith—and directing their supplications—toward the arrival of rain. “Historically, people would venture into the desert to pray for showers,” stated Mehdi Chamran, head of Tehran’s City Council, as cited by a Reuters report referencing state-controlled media. “Perhaps we should not disregard that established custom.”
However, the situation is so critical that even if rain materializes, it is unlikely to suffice. “Nature is now imposing severe restrictions,” AghaKouchak observed. Aquifers that have been depleted will not fully recover, and ecosystems that collapse cannot be swiftly reinstated.
The longer the administration delays implementing meaningful changes, the fewer alternatives remain available, he added. “This water crisis is not solely an ecological concern; it is becoming increasingly interwoven with Iran’s societal and political destiny.”
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