The Lifespan of Modern Humans: The Potential Biological Ceiling
A preprint article published on Research Square introduces a methodology that estimates not the actual lifespan achieved by ancient populations, but rather their potential biological limit. Researchers employed epigenetic “clocks,” which gauge age-related alterations in DNA methylation, to ascertain the possible maximum lifespan for contemporary humans.
Research Data and Methodology
A collective of scientists hailing from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Zoology alongside other institutions amassed 15,283 methylation samples, spanning individuals aged 0 to 114 years, notably incorporating data from 219 participants over the age of 90. Utilizing 16 distinct methylation clocks across various tissues, they projected the potential upper boundary for human longevity.
Assessment of Biological Age
While epigenetic clocks are commonly utilized to gauge biological age, their precision can diminish during extreme age ranges, and different tissues exhibit varied aging rates. The researchers’ incorporation of multiple analytical frameworks facilitated the derivation of a credible range for the ultimate life expectancy ceiling.
Potential Limit and Comparison with Ancient Hominins
The models indicated a theoretical upper limit for modern human lifespan falling between 128 and 202 years, contrasting sharply with Jeanne Calment’s established record of 122.493 years. When benchmarked against reconstructed methylation data from Neanderthals and Denisovans, these ancient groups exhibited a considerably shorter projected lifespan—ranging from 38 to 70 years—suggesting a relatively recent evolutionary development unique to Homo sapiens.
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