A theoretical framework has been developed by physicists at Kyoto University suggesting that perturbations within the ionosphere—the upper atmospheric layer—can, under specific conditions, generate electrostatic potential deep within the Earth’s crust, thereby potentially triggering major earthquakes. This research has been published in the journal International Journal of Plasma Environmental Science and Technology (IJPEST).
The researchers hypothesize that in crustal regions characterized by existing or potential fissures, where water is present under conditions of high temperature and pressure, areas acting analogously to electrical capacitors can form. These structures establish connections both with the Earth’s surface and the lower ionosphere, collectively forming a massive “Earth–atmosphere” electrostatic complex.
During intense solar flares, the electron density in the ionosphere rapidly escalates, allowing for the formation of a negatively charged layer. Through capacitive coupling, this charge induces potent electric fields within the microscopic cavities inside rock formations. Calculations project that the resulting electrostatic pressure can sometimes reach several megapascals. This magnitude is comparable to tidal and gravitational stresses—factors known to influence fault stability.
The scientists calculated that an increase in the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere by several tens of units during significant solar flares could lead to a considerable escalation of pressure within fault zones.
Ionospheric anomalies have been repeatedly documented preceding powerful seismic events. Specifically, surges in electron density, a lowering of the ionosphere’s altitude, and shifts in atmospheric wave propagation have been observed.
Previously, such phenomena were often interpreted as being consequences of processes originating in the Earth’s crust. The new model introduces the possibility of a bidirectional interaction: while subterranean processes affect the ionosphere, perturbations from above can, in turn, exert influence on the crust.
The research team points out that several significant Japanese earthquakes, including the incident on the Noto Peninsula in 2024, occurred shortly following periods of heightened solar activity. Nevertheless, the scientists maintain caution, emphasizing that temporal coincidence does not automatically imply a direct cause-and-effect relationship.
In the near future, the scientific group plans to integrate data from satellite navigation, which provides the capability to construct three-dimensional ionospheric maps, with space weather information. This integration aims to quantify whether ionospheric disturbances genuinely contribute to the stress state of the Earth’s crust.
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