Manual transmission vehicles are at risk of completely vanishing from dealerships by the end of this decade. Major automotive groups are increasingly questioning the economic viability of continuing to produce such transmissions. According to a fresh forecast from the analytical agency Vehicle Data Global (VDG), the rate at which the “manual” segment is shrinking is now accelerating faster than the decline in sales of diesel-powered vehicles. Both of these once-dominant vehicle types could permanently exit the new passenger car market as early as 2030.
VDG specialists analyzed millions of market indicators and concluded that the rapid decline of manual transmissions is driven by both the reduction of model lineups by brands and a sharp shift in consumer preferences. For instance, based on the results of the first several months of the current year, the share of cars with manual transmissions has fallen to a mere 13.7% of the total car market volume. For comparison, the diesel segment has experienced almost complete eradication since 2016, with its volumes plummeting by 92%.
The agency emphasizes that the abandonment of “manual” is not solely linked to the expansion of hybrids and electric vehicles, which structurally utilize automatic transmissions. A decline in interest in “three pedals” is being observed even within the segment of traditional gasoline and diesel cars, where buyers still have a choice. Among conservative buyers of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the share of manual transmissions has dropped from 55% in 2019 to 34% in 2025.
As VDG’s Chief Operating Officer Ben Hermer notes, the industry is rapidly approaching a point where the costs associated with designing, certifying, environmental testing, and maintaining supply chains for manual transmissions will simply cease to be profitable. Even taking into account that a small segment of loyal “manual” enthusiasts will remain globally, it is economically unfeasible for automakers to maintain parallel engineering programs. Corporations are forced to strictly prioritize budgets, directing available resources towards electrification and competing with new international players in the EV sector.
Mathematical trends indicate that by 2030, approximately 5-10% of manufactured vehicles might still be equipped with manual transmissions, but business logic will likely compel factories to shut down these operations prematurely.
Notably, the classic image of a diesel sedan with a manual transmission – an ideal work tool for commercial fleets and long highway journeys – is becoming a thing of the past. The only remaining haven of stability for manual gearboxes is currently the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) sector. In the segment of vans and light trucks, diesel and manual transmissions still hold the lead: last year, vehicles with manual transmissions accounted for 63% of sales there, whereas among passenger car models, less than one in five buyers now chooses a manual transmission.
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