For a long time, scientists believed that long-term changes in the water temperature of the Atlantic Ocean were driven by natural processes. However, a recent study by climatologists from Florida State University and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, published in Geophysical Research Letters, has challenged this theory.
By employing an innovative statistical method to analyze data spanning from 1920 to 2025, the researchers were able to distinguish natural climate signals from the effects of human activity. They discovered that in the Pacific Ocean, natural cycles such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a long-term pattern of climate variability in the Pacific region – Ed. note) still dominate.
In the Atlantic, the situation is different. There, temperature fluctuations are directly linked to human-induced factors.
As the scientists explain, what was previously interpreted as natural cycles is actually the result of a “struggle” between two forces:
- industrial pollution (aerosols): these reflect sunlight, cooling the ocean;
- greenhouse gases: these trap heat, warming the water.
The balance between these factors has shifted over decades, creating the illusion of natural oscillations. This discovery is critically important for improving the accuracy of hurricane forecasting and planning infrastructure development along the Atlantic coast.
About the Author
