Humans may never be able to live forever, but a new study suggests that the average human lifespan could one day approach 200 years.
Even if we learn to cure every disease, our own cells will eventually stop functioning…
A study conducted by the Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology found that even if all other causes of aging were eliminated, the accumulation of natural genetic changes over time would still eventually cause organs to stop functioning properly. Scientists calculated that, in such a scenario, the typical human lifespan would range from 146 to 194 years, although some individuals could potentially live for more than 550 years.
Researchers hope their work will help us better understand the factors that drive aging and identify which ones should be targeted to significantly extend life.
How long can a human live?
A study published in the journal NPJ Aging examines a relatively simple hypothetical scenario: if we could eliminate all reversible causes of aging but could not prevent DNA changes within cells, how long could a human actually live?
These genetic changes are known as somatic mutations. They are not inherited but arise naturally when cells divide or sustain damage—a process that begins at the moment of conception.
Each time a cell divides, small errors can randomly appear in the DNA—much like what happens when repeatedly copying the same document: a copy of a copy, of a copy, of a copy.
Most of these changes are harmless. However, they can accumulate over time. A specific combination of mutations can disrupt cellular function and even lead to cancer. Eliminating such DNA changes is extremely difficult, and scientists do not yet fully understand exactly how they affect the body.
Our cells are capable of defending themselves against such damage through repair and regeneration mechanisms. Some organs, such as the liver and lungs, are capable of renewing their cells almost continuously.
In contrast, heart and brain cells regenerate much less effectively. Consequently, these organs are far more vulnerable to damage caused by the accumulation of somatic mutations.
According to scientists’ calculations, it is precisely this gradual damage to vital organs—accumulating over decades—that may ultimately set a limit on the human lifespan.
At a certain point, the damage becomes excessive, and the heart or brain ceases to function properly. However, this study offers only one perspective on the aging process, and much remains unknown. The authors themselves acknowledge that they did not account for the potential influence organs might have on one another.
In essence, their work provides a mathematical assessment of the impact of just one aging factor, though the scientists hope it will serve as a foundation for future research.
“Ultimately, incorporating other key aging factors could lead to a comprehensive theory of aging. This will require the coordinated efforts of multiple research groups—a challenging task, yet one that may become increasingly achievable in the near future,” the study states.
João Pedro de Magalhães, a professor of molecular gerontology at the University of Birmingham’s Institute of Inflammation and Ageing, described the mathematical modeling as “interesting” but noted that it relies on a number of assumptions that have not yet been proven.
He argued that any estimate of the maximum human lifespan based solely on somatic mutations is highly speculative, as it considers only one possible mechanism of aging.
The scientist’s own research points to a different possibility: aging may be linked less to the accumulation of molecular damage and mutations and more to how our cells are programmed.
In other words, aging might not be so much a problem of bodily “wear and tear” as a problem of information. If we learn to reprogram cells, the scientist believes, we could potentially be talking not just about extending human life to 200 years, but even to 20,000 years.
However, both he and the authors of the new study agree on one thing: humanity still has much to learn.
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