Chinese automakers are poised to capture 37% of the global automotive market by 2030—up from 22% in the first half of 2026—as rising consumer confidence drives their expansion beyond China, according to UBS analysts.
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The forecast has been raised from 35%, with the projected market share in Europe also increased to 20% from 18%. Chinese brands currently hold about 8% of the European market, and recent growth rates have exceeded earlier expectations.
A UBS Evidence Lab survey of 12,000 consumers revealed that 36% of European respondents are considering purchasing an electric vehicle from a Chinese brand. Interest in Chinese brands in Europe surpassed the combined interest in Japanese and Korean marques.
Value for money remains the primary draw, cited by 66% of potential buyers of Chinese EVs worldwide. Advanced technology—including digital features and autonomous driving capabilities—ranked second at 61%.
Since 2019, Chinese automakers have increased their market share by 9–12 percentage points across Europe, Latin America, parts of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Weak domestic demand in China has also intensified pressure on manufacturers to ramp up exports.
Europe remains a key battleground for competition. Potential tariffs on plug-in hybrids and new local production requirements could slow the progress of Chinese brands, alongside challenges such as low vehicle residual values, limited after-sales networks, and difficulties penetrating the corporate fleet market. In the base-case scenario, a small group of companies—including BYD, Geely, Chery, SAIC, Leapmotor, and Xiaomi—could emerge as leading Chinese players in overseas markets. An optimistic scenario projects their combined share reaching 45% of the global market and 30% of the European market by 2030. A pessimistic scenario limits these figures to 33% globally and 15% in Europe.
European and Asian mass-market automakers face the greatest competitive pressure. US manufacturers remain in a more protected position, as trade barriers effectively block Chinese automakers from accessing the US market. Premium car manufacturers are also expected to prove more resilient than their mass-market counterparts.
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