The rating agency Fitch has highlighted uncertainties in the US economy stemming from tariffs, expenditure related to the conflict with Iran, and issues with governance, as detailed in a statement released on the agency’s website.
Despite these added risks, the agency maintained the long-term rating for the United States at AA+. The American budget deficit is projected to remain at 7.9% of the country’s gross domestic product, with US national debt expected to climb to 122% by the close of 2027.
Fitch had previously downgraded the US long-term rating from AAA to AA+ in 2023. At that time, Fitch analysts attributed their decision to a deterioration in the financial standing of the United States, an increase in the debt burden, along with a weakening of governmental management structures. The administration of then-US President Joe Biden contested the agency’s move, labelling it as “arbitrary.”
In August 2025, Fitch reaffirmed the US long-term rating at AA+. On that occasion, the analytical firm pointed to the substantial US budget deficit, noting that the shortfall for 2025 would narrow to 6.9% from 7.7% in 2024, a result of a significant boost in revenue generated by trade tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on imports.
Fitch employs several tiers for assigning credit ratings.
AAA denotes the highest solvency level and minimal risk of default;
AA signifies a high solvency level, with a low probability of default;
A indicates strong solvency, although more susceptible by comparison with higher tiers, with a low risk of default;
BBB suggests a moderate default risk;
BB reflects an elevated risk of default;
B points to a considerably increased risk of default;
CCC represents a very high risk of default;
CC positions a risk of default near the highest among all categories;
C marks the initiation of processes resembling default;
RD means Fitch believes a default has occurred even if not officially acknowledged;
D signifies a confirmed default.
Ratings spanning from AAA to BBB are categorized as investment grade, while the remainder are deemed speculative. Suffixes of +/- are utilized for grades between AA and CCC to denote relative differences in the likelihood of default.
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