In Chiba Prefecture, situated east of Tokyo, a catastrophic earthquake and subsequent tsunami could result in over 50,000 fatalities under the most severe circumstances. This projection has been released by the local authorities.
The most perilous scenario is considered to be a wave impact of approximately 12 meters occurring at night, a time when the majority of residents are at home. Even with swift evacuation procedures, the death toll in such an event would surpass 20,000. Should the tsunami strike in the afternoon, the losses could be in excess of 8,000 individuals. It is important to note that the announcement does not specify an exact date for when this might occur.
The prefecture’s officials are already commencing preparations for a potential emergency. As it is known, Chiba is currently home to approximately 6.3 million people. The prefecture’s leadership aims to mitigate potential casualties among the populace. Among the planned measures are reinforcing and increasing the height of seawalls, integrating them into a unified protective system, and conducting regular evacuation drills.
A separate forecast has been issued concerning Tokyo itself. According to an assessment by government experts, published in December 2025, a magnitude 7 earthquake could claim the lives of up to 18,000 people. An additional roughly 400,000 buildings are at risk of destruction.
About the Author
