Researchers from the USA have stated that the first major accident might occur in Earth’s orbit. This incident would threaten disastrous outcomes.
According to experts’ estimates, satellites are already encountering difficulties with maneuvering. The initial instance of a perilous collision between spacecraft could happen in the coming days.
Over the past seven years, the number of satellites in near-Earth orbit has increased remarkably. Whereas around 4 thousand devices orbited the Earth in 2018, by 2025 their count grew to approximately 14 thousand. Scientists claim the reason lies in the active deployment of so-called mega-constellations.
This refers to groups comprised of hundreds or thousands of small satellites, intended to provide global internet access. This is particularly relevant in regions where the internet is either practically unavailable or its cost is extremely high. The leading position in this field is held by the company SpaceX with its Starlink project, which has already launched over 9 thousand devices.
Experts noted that between December 1, 2024, and May 31, 2025, satellites performed 144,404 avoidance maneuvers. This figure indicates that any one of them could have bumped into another craft, potentially triggering a chain reaction destroying other satellites.
Scientists cautioned that if the current pace of developments continues, one of the craft will sooner or later make an error while performing maneuvers. Moreover, such a hazard exists in the immediate weeks and even days. The critical probability is due to some satellites failing, requiring engineers to adjust the flight paths of other satellite assets on the fly.
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