Donald Trump’s declared intention to “declassify aliens”—to release, as he recently put it, “government files pertaining to alien and extraterrestrial life”—has ignited a frenzy, literally, within certain circles that remain unidentified. Perhaps these are groups situated close to extraterrestrials. Some unknown traders are placing bets amounting to hundreds of thousands of dollars “on aliens.”
Evidently, someone is backing them.
These anonymous bettors are wagering on prediction platforms, as reported by The Atlantic. Individuals are entering into agreements, betting “yes” on the notion that the US government (or Trump) will issue an official confirmation regarding the existence of extraterrestrial—specifically intelligent—life or alien technologies by the close of 2026.
On the Kalshi platform, stakes as high as $100,000 and even $200,000 have been recorded. It’s conceivable that a single individual was responsible for these large wagers. The bets were made in substantial blocks, not in small increments, which deviates from the typical behavior and rationale of professional traders.
The public is left wondering what to make of this: either these desperate gamblers actually possess insider information—certainly knowing the sensational nature of the forthcoming disclosure and that it will indeed happen—or they simply have excess cash they don’t know what to do with. Figuratively speaking, they are “going wild.”
Wagers have also been placed, significant ones too, asserting that aliens do not exist and no confirmation of their presence will emerge.
The platform’s analysts estimate the probability of extraterrestrials being declassified at around 20 percent.
According to the most widely held UFO myth, a “flying saucer” crashed in the US in 1947. The accompanying image shows a recreation of the supposed crash scene.
Loeb is in on it too.
The hype—including the betting fervor—predating Trump’s statements was fueled by Barack Obama, the 44th US President. During a television appearance, when asked, “Do aliens exist?” he responded affirmatively, stating they are real.
Before Obama, Avi Loeb, the Harvard astrophysicist, notably made waves by persistently and quite convincingly arguing that the interstellar object 3I/ATLAS might actually be an alien spacecraft.
Furthermore, the scientist publicly engaged in a $1,000 wager—modest compared to the current followers—stipulating that “the detection or disclosure of information regarding visitation of Earth by aliens in the form of UFOs, UAPs, or any other technological artifacts or biological beings, confirmed by major scientific institutions and governmental agencies, will occur before December 31, 2030.”
Loeb accepted this bet, which was put forward under the Long Now Foundation’s long-term betting program by Dr. Michael Shermer, a historian of science and publisher of Skeptic magazine. Shermer, conversely, bet that no such event—meaning “detection and disclosure”—would happen within the specified timeframe.
Under the terms of the wager, waiting for revelations from US presidents is not necessary. It will suffice if, before December 31, 2030, two out of three scientific organizations—NASA, the National Science Foundation, and the American Astronomical Society (AAS)—confirm that discovered objects are extraterrestrial in their technological or biological nature. This could apply not just to terrestrial artifacts but also to findings in deep space. Thus, Loeb would win even if more complex life were discovered anywhere else—on any planet.
The astrophysicist’s enthusiasm is further bolstered by his recent research conducted jointly with colleagues from Reichman University.
The authors surveyed 6,114 “highly educated and scientifically engaged individuals,” nearly 80 percent of whom held a bachelor’s degree. The responses indicated that over 90 percent of those surveyed believe in the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life. Moreover, slightly more than 60 percent have absolutely no doubt.
Two years prior, British scientists specifically polled astrobilogists. The findings, published in Nature Astronomy, revealed that 58.2 percent of those scientists stated that intelligent extraterrestrial life likely exists.
Shermer, too, remains confident in his outcome. According to the doctor, he has been documenting predictions about the imminent discovery or revelation of an alien visit to Earth since the founding of The Skeptics Society and Skeptic magazine in 1992.
“I have been awaiting this evidence for over 33 years,” the scientist states. He and the astrophysicist are prepared to wait another four years—five years since placing the bet last year.
AS A MATTER OF FACT
Trump’s Long History of Intrigue
Trump had previously hinted publicly about aliens during his initial term. In 2020, leading up to Father’s Day (celebrated on the third Sunday in June in the US), Donald Sr. gave an interview to his son, Donald Trump Jr.
When asked by “Jr.” whether the White House would ever disclose the true events of Roswell, “Sr.” replied that he would certainly consider it. He did not rule out the possibility of details being declassified.
“I don’t want to discuss with you right now everything I know about this, but it’s very interesting,” the American president added. Through this comment, he implied knowledge that extended beyond the conventional understanding of the Roswell incident. According to conspiracy theories, a “flying saucer” carrying aliens crashed there in the US, and the pilots supposedly perished.
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