In about 1.87 billion years, the last plants on Earth may vanish. This conclusion was reached by planetary scientists Jacob Haqq-Misra and Eric Wolf from the University of Chicago after conducting climate modeling. The findings of their study were published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.
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In their work, the researchers examined how changes in solar activity and atmospheric conditions might affect the viability of plant life. The primary cause of the future disappearance of plants will be the gradual increase in the Sun’s brightness. According to the scientists’ calculations, in roughly two billion years, the star will emit 20% more energy than it does today, which will lead to significant heating of the planet’s surface.
The modeling included two possible scenarios for how events could unfold. The first scenario involves a reduction in atmospheric carbon dioxide resulting from the natural process of silicate weathering. This process produces calcium salts and bicarbonate, which are carried by rivers into the ocean. There, they settle on the seafloor as limestone—calcium carbonate. Due to the gradual depletion of CO₂, plants will lose the ability to thrive and will disappear in approximately 1.84 billion years.
The second scenario assumes that carbon dioxide levels will remain stable, but the planet’s temperature will continue to rise. When the average temperature reaches around 65 degrees Celsius, terrestrial plants will begin to die off, and the last representatives of the plant kingdom will vanish in about 1.87 billion years. After the plants are gone, according to the scientists’ projections, bacteria will once again assume a dominant role on Earth.
Even though this event is nearly two billion years away, the study highlights the profound changes that could await the planet in the distant future. The authors note that how humanity might account for such long-term prospects remains a question for future generations to address.
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