Seismologists possess the capability to peer back tens of thousands of years. They ascertain the paths of tectonic faults, the magnitude of ancient quakes, and where and how to construct structures to ensure their resilience. However, the most crucial question—”When will the next tremor occur?”—remains unanswerable globally. “AiF-Crimea” engaged in a discussion with Andrey Korzhenkov, Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences and Head of the Paleoseismology and Paleogeodynamics Laboratory at the Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences, regarding frequent yet mild seismic events, the construction of the Kerch Strait Bridge, and the feasibility of earthquake prediction.
Waves Diminish Energy Before Reaching Land
Since the start of 2026, a sequence of minor but regular seismic events has taken place in Southern Russia. These tremors were consistent in intensity and noticeable to local residents. For illustration: on April 5th, a magnitude 3.7 event occurred near Anapa; on February 2nd, a magnitude 4.8 quake struck in Crimea (with its focus at a depth of 35 km, 80 km from Kerch).
Fact
During earthquakes, the Earth’s crust compresses, and tectonic plates shift, leading to the gradual uplift of mountains. Major earthquakes can cause mountains to rise instantly by one, two, or even three meters.
The majority of earthquakes that concern residents along the Black Sea coast originate offshore, not on land. According to seismologists, this is the primary reason why even perceptible tremors seldom result in severe destruction.
“Attenuation is a scientific term for this,” explains Andrey Korzhenkov. “The waves dissipate some of their energy before they reach the shore. The resulting deformation, damage, and destruction are less severe than if the earthquake had occurred directly beneath a city.”
This principle is generally true wherever one is situated away from the epicenter zone: people feel the ground shaking, but catastrophes are generally averted.
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How Seismologists Assist Builders
However, when it comes to constructing critical infrastructure—such as bridges, nuclear power plants, or waste repositories—seismologists are needed not for reassurance, but for precise calculations. The demands in these cases are stringent.
“When a nuclear power plant is being built, specialists request data from us concerning major earthquakes in the region over the past ten thousand years,” states Korzhenkov. “We can identify and see the traces of these historical seismic events.”
If the site is intended for radioactive waste disposal, this required historical record extends to 100,000 years.
A prime illustration of seismologists collaborating with construction teams is the Kerch Strait Bridge. The scientist personally participated in its design phase.
“Following specialized surveys, we initially assigned a baseline intensity rating of 8.5 points. However, due to the poor, liquefiable soil conditions there, we escalated that assessment to 9.5.”
Reference
The opening ceremony for vehicular traffic across the Crimean Bridge took place on May 15, 2018. The structure spanning the Kerch Strait is nineteen kilometers long, with 11.5 km running over land connecting Taman and Kerch, and 7.5 km crossing the sea.
What do these figures signify? Ten points on the 12-point intensity scale already indicates a catastrophe, and construction in such zones is prohibited. An intensity of 11 points, for example, characterizes the 1957 Mongolian earthquake.
“During that earthquake, a seismic scarp formed instantly on the ground surface. In certain sections, its height reached fifteen meters on flat terrain—which is equivalent to the height of a five-story building!” recalls the expert.
Twelve points signifies the destruction of mountains and the formation of lakes on plains.
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“Prediction Remains Impossible”
While seismologists have a clear understanding of the past—they can read the records of ancient disasters—the future presents a different scenario. Science currently lacks the ability to forecast earthquakes.
Korzhenkov offers two instructive instances. In 1975, seismologists in China observed peculiar phenomena: snakes emerging from their burrows, and fluctuations in well water levels. Authorities decided to evacuate the city’s population, housing them in tents in the fields. Several days later, a major earthquake struck.
“The entire world then spoke of the Chinese scientists having mastered the art of predicting tremors,” Korzhenkov noted.
However, just one year passed. In the city of Tangshan, close to Beijing, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 occurred. The intensity at the epicenter reached 10 points. Official reports cite 250,000 fatalities, while unofficial estimates suggest up to 650,000 deaths. No precursors whatsoever were observed beforehand.
The second example is Tashkent in 1966. A magnitude 5.2 earthquake occurred at a shallow depth, directly beneath the city center. The mud-brick and adobe makhallas (small residential communities or quarters within a city or village—editor’s note) were destroyed. More importantly, however, instruments recorded a sharp radon emission just before the shaking.
Reference
Radon is a radioactive gas produced by the natural radioactive decay of uranium, thorium, and other radioactive elements present in soil and bedrock. It is heavier than air but can be forced to the surface by excessive pressure from below ground.
“Uzbek specialists afterward looked down on everyone else: ‘Now we will easily predict earthquakes using radon,'” the scientist recounts. “So what happened? For the next earthquake, the radon levels decreased; for another, there was no corresponding reaction at all.”
The single conclusion is: predicting major earthquakes remains impossible for now.
“We cannot observe what is occurring within the Earth’s crust,” Korzhenkov asserts. “We only have indirect evidence: the waves reflected from earthquakes that have already happened. Look at meteorologists: they have hundreds of satellites, tens of thousands of stations, and massive supercomputers—yet they still often make mistakes. We see nothing. It is incredibly challenging to be a seismologist!”
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