On June 14th, Switzerland will hold a referendum on a proposal aiming to cap the country’s permanent population below 10 million by 2050. This initiative, titled “No to a 10 Million Switzerland! / Sustainability Initiative” (Volksinitiative «Keine 10-Millionen-Schweiz! / Nachhaltigkeitsinitiative»), has been put forth by the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), the largest right-wing conservative party in the nation.
Currently, approximately 9.1 million individuals reside in the republic. The proponents of the initiative emphasize that since the agreement on the free movement of people with the EU came into effect in 2002, Switzerland’s population has risen by around 1.7 million, “primarily due to migration.” The SVP’s proposal stipulates that if the population reaches 9.5 million, the government and parliament would be compelled to implement measures to curb migration, focusing particularly on asylum and family reunification.
The impetus for this initiative stems from a forecast published in April 2025 by the Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland (BFS). This projection indicates an anticipated population increase to roughly 10.5 million by 2055, “largely attributable to migration,” while the birth rate remains below the level required for population replacement, and natural growth is near zero.
Having secured approximately 29% of the vote in the 2023 parliamentary elections, the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) emerged victorious. Ideologically aligned with right-wing populist political forces in the EU, the party advocates for stringent immigration policies and criticizes Switzerland’s adherence to sanctions against Russia, viewing it as a contravention of the principle of neutrality.
Switzerland’s Federal Assembly, a bicameral parliament, comprises the National Council (200 seats) and the Council of Cantons (46 seats). Due to the specific nature of the Swiss system, which is rooted in direct democracy, no single party typically Garner’s a majority in parliament. The nation is governed by a broad coalition of political forces, and decisions are frequently put to a referendum. Consequently, the SVP controls only about 30% of the seats in the lower house, amounting to 62 seats.
The Federal Council, Switzerland’s executive government, includes representatives from the country’s major political parties, reflecting diverse regions and language groups. Currently, two SVP representatives serve on the Council, heading the Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research (EAER) and the Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC), respectively. Furthermore, Guy Parmelin, an SVP member, assumed the presidency of Switzerland on January 1st.
Should the initiative be approved, Swiss authorities would be obligated, among other things, to renegotiate international agreements that contribute to population growth. The initiative’s draft states, “If the 10 million threshold is exceeded, Switzerland will have to terminate these agreements, including the agreement with the EU on the free movement of people. Switzerland’s participation in the EU’s Schengen and Dublin agreements will also be called into question, as will close cooperation in security and asylum matters.”
Switzerland is not a member of the EU. Its relationship with the bloc is governed by a series of bilateral (sectoral) agreements (Bilaterals). In 2002, an agreement on the free movement of persons between Switzerland and the EU was signed and took effect on June 1st of that year. This agreement grants citizens of Switzerland and EU countries the reciprocal right to live and work in each other’s territories, provided they adhere to stipulated rules and conditions.
Switzerland has also become part of the Schengen Area and the Dublin system (regulation). The relevant agreements were signed in 2004, approved by referendum in 2005, and implemented in 2008. Adherence to Schengen entails the abolition of systematic passport checks at borders with member states and the application of uniform visa issuance policies. Swiss law enforcement, customs, and migration authorities also have full and direct access to pan-European information systems.
Participation in the Dublin system involves the application of common European rules for determining which country is responsible for processing asylum claims. According to the regulation, the country of first entry into the EU is typically responsible for examining asylum applications.
Notably, this marks the third initiative by the SVP focused on restricting immigration. The party previously presented similar proposals for referendums in 2014 and 2018. The 2014 “Against Mass Immigration” initiative was approved, but the federal authorities have yet to fully implement it.
What are the potential consequences?
According to BFS data, foreigners constitute 27% of Switzerland’s population, one of the highest proportions among developed European nations. The majority of foreign residents in the republic hail primarily from Italy, Germany, Portugal, and France. Migrants most frequently come to Switzerland for employment opportunities, filling labor shortages in sectors such as elder care, as well as in highly skilled industries like the pharmaceutical sector.
If Swiss citizens endorse the proposal to limit the population, the Federal Council’s initial step would be to terminate the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons with the EU. Der Tagesspiegel reports that this could jeopardize the status of thousands of Germans. Currently, approximately 339,000 Germans live in Switzerland, with an additional nearly 65,000 commuting daily for work from bordering German towns. If the referendum passes, German citizens, along with those from other EU countries, would likely be required to obtain work permits for the republic under a quota system. Critics of the initiative suggest this could lead to a competition for quota allocation among various sectors facing labor shortages.
Journalists at the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) draw parallels with Brexit, noting that the adoption of this initiative would inevitably trigger a distancing process between Switzerland and the EU. The NZZ journalists comment, “The UK’s experience indicates that Brussels would likely not tolerate Switzerland’s further participation in the single market under such circumstances and would not facilitate new agreements. Consequently, this initiative would have significant repercussions for the Swiss economy, akin to Brexit for the UK, a decision that a clear majority of Britons now regret.”
In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Swiss President Guy Parmelin signed a third package of bilateral agreements (Bilaterals III) aimed at consolidating and strengthening relations between the country and the bloc. These agreements, among other things, envisage the creation of a “common food security space,” the harmonization of standards, and Switzerland’s participation in the European internal electricity market. The agreements still require ratification, and in Switzerland, their ultimate fate will be decided not only by parliament but also by the citizens in a referendum, which is anticipated in 2027.
Notably, in the spring of 2025, Switzerland also joined two EU military projects under the Permanent Structured Cooperation on Defence program, including the “military Schengen.” This initiative aims to streamline the movement of military equipment and troops across European territories without border delays.
Meanwhile, polls released shortly before the referendum indicate a decline in public support for the initiative. A study commissioned by the Swiss public broadcaster SRG SSR reveals that approximately 52% of voters intend to vote against population reduction. In just one month, the proportion of opponents to this idea has increased by 5 percentage points. Forty-five percent of respondents support the initiative, while 3% remain undecided.
The NZZ writes that even if the initiative fails, Switzerland should avoid repeating the mistakes of its European neighbors, who, by disregarding public discontent with immigration, inadvertently bolstered the position of the radical right. The journalists conclude that Switzerland must increasingly seek avenues for better control over migration and its consequences.
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